Friday December 18, 2009 - 11:59:50 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 18-Dec-2009 - 1157 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0424/27...Might test the Resistance region (1.0470-90) once again
R: 1.0430 / 1.0470-90 / 1.0520
S: 1.0380-60 / 1.0320 / 1.0250
Swiss is continuing to trade above 1.0400 but in a very a narrow range of 1.0400-30. If it continues to trade above 1.0400, we might see a rise once again towards the Resistance region (1.0470-90). A strong break above 1.0490 might take it up towards 1.0530-50 on the upside in the US session today.Remember, a weekly close above 1.0500 might signal a trend reversal. However, we expect the Resistance in 1.0470-90 region to hold and the overall downtrend to continue. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.0489.
On the downside Support is seen in 1.0380-60 region a break below which might pull it down towards 1.0320-00 or even lower in the coming sessions.
GBP-USD @ 1.6200/05...200-DMA at 1.5988
R: 1.6235-57 / 1.6302-23 / 1.6340
S: 1.6173 / 1.6070-58 / 1.5988
Cable has traded higher during the day and recorded a high of 1.6249. Today being the last day of the week, the pair may not do much and may oscillate between the Projected Max High and Low for the day which is at 1.6302 and 1.6058 respectively. On a break below 1.6058, the pair may come down towards the 200-DMA (1.5988).
The daily charts suggest a possibility of Double top formation which would be confirmed on a fall below the 55-week MA (1.5595). That would however be a long way to go.
AUD-USD @ 0.8906/09...Trendline Support at 0.8820
R: 0.8945 / 0.8970-80 / 0.9030
S: 0.8853 / 0.8820 / 0.8760
After trading in the range of 0.8865-95, Aussie has broken above 0.8900 now and is trading just above 0.8900. If it continues to trade above 0.8900, we might see a rise towards 0.8980 in the US session today.
On the downside 0.8853 (100-DMA) and 0.8820 (Trendline Support on the weekly chart) are the significant Support levels seen below 0.8900. The pair is not showing much strength on the downmove now and so we may expect the Trendline Support at 0.8820 seen on the weekly chart to hold in the US session today, if any sharp move below 0.8900 is seen.
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