Technical Factors; Reduced Risk Aversion Pressure U.S. Dollar
Overbought market conditions and reduced demand for
safe-haven assets helped to weaken the U.S. Dollar overnight.Technically, both the Relative Strength Index
and the Stochastic Oscillator have placed the Dollar into overbought territory.
Reduced concerns about sovereign debt issues in Greece,
Spain and Portugal have
helped increase demand for higher risk assets. The combination of these two
factors could pressure the Dollar today.
The Dollar reached a three-month high this week, driven by a
flight to safety rally spurred by a downgrade in Greeceâ€™s debt and position
adjustments because of changes in Fed policy regarding the possibility of a
shift toward a tighter monetary policy.There have also been signs the Dollar is beginning to react positively
to good economic news.
The EUR USD is trading slightly better.Oversold conditions may have stopped the
decline, but the news that business confidence rose to a 17-month high in
December is most likely the catalyst behind the overnight strength.
Increased risk appetite is contributing to the strength in
the GBP USD.Overnight, the Bank of
England Financial Stability Report said the U.K. financial system is
â€śsignificantly more stableâ€ť.It did add,
however, that the â€śprobability of default by U.K. real estate companies has
increased significantlyâ€ť.The British
Pound could see volatile trading over the next couple of months as the Bank of
England begins to phase out of its quantitative easing program. The possibility
households will continue to face weakening labor conditions as well as
tightening credit conditions could fuel further weakness.Finally, the threat of a cut in the U.K. debt
rating from AAA remains a concern among long-term investors.
Last night the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest
rate at 0.10%.In addition, it hinted
that its biggest concern remains deflation.Overall there were no surprises in the policy statement.Reduced demand for safe haven investments is
giving the USD JPY a boost this morning.
Stronger crude oil, equities and gold are helping the
Canadian Dollar recover some of this weekâ€™s losses.Although USD CAD traders showed a firm
commitment to the upside yesterday, no significant trend changes took place and
the market has fallen back inside of its 60 day range.
Overbought conditions are pressuring the USD CHF.Yesterdayâ€™s spike to the upside may have been
too much to handle.Traders sold the
Swiss Franc yesterday on concerns the sovereign debt issues in Europe would adversely affect the Swiss Banking
system.Now that debt concerns have
eased, traders are using this lull in the market to take profits after
The AUD USD is bouncing back after two days of selling
pressure.Traders have been pressuring
the Aussie this week because of the strong possibility the U.S. will begin
raising interest rates.This event will
trim the spread between Australian and U.S.
rates since the Reserve Bank of Australia
is likely to take a pause in its quest to raise rates, making the Aussie a less
attractive investment.This currency
pair could drop further if demand for higher yielding assets continues to
A similar situation is facing the NZD USD.A reduction in demand for higher yielding
assets is pressuring the Kiwi, but losses have been limited because of hawkish
comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier this month.
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