Global equity markets are rising overnight as traders
increase demand for higher risk assets.The primary driver for this weekâ€™s weak trade in the equity markets has
been aversion to risky assets due to credit concerns in the Euro Zone.The downgrade of Greeceâ€™s credit rating fueled
yesterdayâ€™s sell-off, but the lack of new bearish developments overnight has
triggered renewed demand for higher risk assets.
The key to todayâ€™s action will be how the March E-mini
S&P 500 reacts following a test of 1101.75.If sellers step up at this price then look for the start of another test
of 1090.00.Regaining this level could
trigger further short-covering.
The rally in the March Treasury Bonds since the Fed announcement
on Wednesday appears to be a â€śsell the rumor, buy the factâ€ť situation.It looks as if traders had already priced in
the impending rate hike.Yesterdayâ€™s
downgrading of Greeceâ€™s
debt sent traders into the Treasuries in a flight to safety rally. The charts
indicate that 120â€™03 is a possible upside target if debt concerns continue to
indicate overbought trading conditions.A weaker Dollar and stronger equities could trigger a profit-taking
break back to 118â€™06.
Overbought market conditions and reduced demand for
safe-haven assets helped to weaken the U.S. Dollar overnight.Technically, both the Relative Strength Index
and the Stochastic Oscillator have placed the Dollar into overbought territory.
Reduced concerns about sovereign debt issues in Greece,
Spain and Portugal have helped increase
demand for higher risk assets. The combination of these two factors could
pressure the Dollar today.
The Dollar reached a three-month high this week, driven by a
flight to safety rally spurred by a downgrade in Greeceâ€™s debt and position
adjustments because of changes in Fed policy regarding the possibility of a
shift toward a tighter monetary policy.There have also been signs the Dollar is beginning to react positively
to good economic news.
The March Euro is trading slightly better.Oversold conditions may have stopped the
decline, but the news that business confidence rose to a 17-month high in
December is most likely the catalyst behind the overnight strength.
Increased risk appetite is contributing to the strength in
the March British Pound.Overnight, the
Bank of England Financial Stability Report said the U.K. financial system is
â€śsignificantly more stableâ€ť.It did add,
however, that the â€śprobability of default by U.K. real estate companies has
increased significantlyâ€ť.The British
Pound could see volatile trading over the next couple of months as the Bank of
England begins to phase out of its quantitative easing program. The possibility
households will continue to face weakening labor conditions as well as
tightening credit conditions could fuel further weakness.Finally, the threat of a cut in the U.K.
debt rating from AAA remains a concern among long-term investors.
Last night the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest
rate at 0.10%.In addition, it hinted
that its biggest concern remains deflation.Overall there were no surprises in the policy statement.Reduced demand for safe haven investments is pressuring
the March Japanese Yen this morning.
Stronger crude oil, equities and gold are helping the
Canadian Dollar recover some of this weekâ€™s losses.Although March Canadian Dollar traders showed
a firm commitment to the downside yesterday, no significant trend changes took
place and the market has rallied back inside of its 60 day range.
Oversold conditions are giving the March Swiss Franc a boost
overnight.Yesterdayâ€™s spike to the downside
may have been too much to handle.Traders sold the Swiss Franc yesterday on concerns the sovereign debt
issues in Europe would adversely affect the
Swiss Banking system.Now that debt
concerns have eased, traders are using this lull in the market to take profits
after yesterdayâ€™s surge.
The slightly weaker Dollar is helping to stabilize February
Gold.This market is hovering around a
key 50% price at $1107.40.Regaining
this area could fuel the start of a short-covering rally.A further strengthening in the Dollar could
trigger another plunge in gold to $1079.00.Everything is hinged on the Dollar at this time.
A geopolitical event is helping to give March Crude Oil a
boost overnight.Itâ€™s been reported that
Iranian troops entered an Iraqi oilfield.This news triggered a short-covering rally overnight while sending this
market back above a key resistance price at 75.53.The first upside objective of this current
rally is 77.85, followed by 78.09.
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