Thursday February 24, 2005 - 01:11:50 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 24th February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 105.20 ... 105.35 ... 105.60 ... 105.99
Support....: 104.72 ... 104.30 ... 104.00 ... 103.82
Cautiously we look for 105.20-35 to cap and for losses from there
Strength was seen above 104.75 but stalled at 105.10. We still feel there is one further attempt higher in this correction which we see failing in the 105.20-35 region. Thus only above 105.35 would see gains extending and would then surpass the 105.60 corrective high to reach the 105.99-106.24 resistance area where we would expect a stronger pullback. Further resistance is then found at the 106.84 high.
We look for a peak to develop in the 105.20-35 area and from here a break back below 104.72-86 would then see a return to the downside which should quickly reach the 104.30 area and probably down towards the 103.82 low where there is a chance of a small pullback. Further support is seen at 103.48 and then not until the 102.89 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
23rd February 2005
The loss of 104.63 and 104.28 requires us to consider an alternative structure. we feel that the move down to 103.82 has completed two ABC patterns and could theoretically cause a move higher from here. This would require a break above the 104.70-84 Fibonacci resistance, the 105.14 pivot resistance and most importantly above the 105.86 Wave x. Until then we must be aware of a the risk of a final ABC pattern lower which we feel could reach the 102.78-89 area. Any lower than this and the alternative count in blue becomes valid which would then call for a Wave -iii- down to the 101.67-82 lows.
24th February 2005
The rally from 103.82 has not yet confirmed the upside and still risks becoming a Wave (x) from where a third ABC pattern can decline and should move to the approximate area ofd a 76.4% pullback around 102.89. Break level for this recovery to turn bullish is at 105.60-86 and would imply the start of a stronger move higher.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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