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Monday December 21, 2009 - 10:28:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 21, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: GDP
Tomorrow, Dec 22, the Gross Domestic Product will be published in the UK, USA and New Zealand.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic
activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly
percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the currency.
Analysts forecast a reading of -0.30% for the GDP, up from -0.10% and a
reading of 2.80% for the USD, representing no change. The NZD is
expected to read 0.10%, down from 0.40%.
The Euro broke the support specified in Fridayâ€™s report 1.4346, and
successfully reached the first target 1.4280. It looks from the channel
drawn on the attached chart that 1.4410 is the limit the separates the
continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the
top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price
is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh
lows below Fridayâ€™s low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4303 and
breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would
target 1.4205 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at
1.4140. A break of todayâ€™s most important resistance 1.4410 would cause
a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4584.
â€¢ 1.4303: Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 1.4205: Aug 26th low.
â€¢ 1.4140: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4410: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
â€¢ 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4584: Dec 11th low.
Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in Fridayâ€™s report 89.80, and
successfully reached both targets 90.40 & 90.90 with amazing
accuracy (Fridayâ€™s high 90.89). We see that the drop that followed to
90.22 is just a short-term correction, and that the advance will carry
on after we are done with it to areas above 90.90. We build this
opinion on our wave count for the short-term which shows that we are in
wave 4 of 5 rising waves that started at 88.91 on Thursday. If our wave
count turns out to be right, we will not break the support 89.86, the
price will start rising breaking short-term resistance 90.46, and
targeting 91.30 first, and may be 91.93 afterwards. If a surprise
happens and we break 89.86 the suggested wave count will be invalid,
and the price will drop targeting the rising trend line from 85.84
which is currently at 89.17, and may be 88.70.
â€¢ 89.86: Fibonacci 61.8% for wave 3 according to our short-term wave count.
â€¢ 89.17: the rising trend line from 85.84.
â€¢ 88.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.89.
â€¢ 90.46: the falling trend line from Fridayâ€™s top on intraday charts.
â€¢ 91.30: Nov 4th high.
â€¢ 91.93: Sep 3rd low.
Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for more Forex Quotes.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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