Monday December 21, 2009 - 12:05:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 21-Dec-2009 - 1203 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0418/21...Resistance in 1.0480-95 reigon
R: 1.0480-95 / 1.0535-50 / 1.0570
S: 1.0395-80 / 1.0350 / 1.0300
After spiking and recording a high of 1.0482 during the day, Swiss has fallen once again and is now trading just above 1.0400. The Resistance 1.0480-95 region has held as expected and we expect it to hold in today's US session also as the pair is continuing to show less momentum on its upmove, although it is trading above 1.0400. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.0489. Hoever, if it continues to trade above 1.0400 and gains upside momentum, a break above 1.05 might take it up towards 1.0535-50.
On the downside, as mentioned earlier strong Support is seen in the broader 1.0350-00 region, which is the significant Support region to be watched for this week. A break below 1.0300 might pull it down towards 1.0250-30
GBP-USD @ 1.6128/32...Strong Support in the 1.6057-1.6008 region
R: 1.6136-47 / 1.6199 / 1.6234
S: 1.6057-08 / 1.5972 / 1.5705
The Cable has ranged between 1.6090 and 1.6159 through the day. The view is still the same as in the morning. There's Support on the pair at 1.6057 which is formed by joining the lows of 27 Nov, 9 Dec and 17 Dec and next at 1.6008 (200-DMA). A fall below the 200-DMA is not anticipated at least till the next year. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6282 and 1.5972 respectively.
The longe term charts suggest a possibility of Double Top which can be confirmed on a fall below the 55-week MA which is at 1.5620 this week. That is a long way from here. There, however are not too many Support between the 200-DMA and 55-week MA.
AUD-USD @ 0.8855/58...Resistance in 0.8900-20 region
R: 0.8900-20 / 0.8970-90 / 0.9030
S: 0.8820 / 0.8770-50 / 0.8700
The Support at 0.8820 mentioned earlier held during the day and Aussie has risen from the low of 0.8816 and is now trading just above 0.8850. We might see a rise towards the Resistance region 0.8900-20 once again in the US session today. Remember the pair failed to see a strong break above this Resistance region (0.8900-20) on Friday. A strong break above this Resistance region might see a rise towards 0.8980-0.9000 in the coming sessions. On the other hand if it continues to trade below 0.8900 and gains downside momentum, we might expect a break below the Support at 0.8820 and see a downmove towards 0.8770-50 in the coming sessions.days. The next significant level to watch for on the downside below 0.8820 is 0.8700 which is the Support seen on the monthly chart.
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