Dollar Bulls Pinning Hopes on U.S. Economic Recovery
Todayâ€™s rally in the U.S. Dollar appears to be a sign that
risk sentiment may not be the driving force behind price action much
longer.The action today suggests that
funds are being reallocated into the Dollar and stocks in an effort to capture
a rise from the continuing improvement in the U.S. economy. The positive trade in
both the stock and Dollar markets is a sign that investors are shifting back to
watching traditional fundamentals for direction.
The EUR USD finished the day lower.The improving U.S.
economy and lingering debt issues in Greece,
Portugal and Spain
are likely to continue to pressure the Euro.Longer-term charts indicate a move to 1.3800 is likely.
The British Pound closed down for the day.The chart indicates the next potential
downside target is 1.5980.Traders are
repositioning ahead of Tuesdayâ€™s Final Third Quarter GDP report.Economistsâ€™ are guessing an upward revision
to -0.1% from an earlier guess of -0.3%.This figure will be a positive for the GBP USD and indicate that the U.K
is getting ready to return to growth during the 4th quarter.
The USD JPY surged to the upside on Monday and is now
building upside momentum for a test of the October top at 92.32. The only factor
that could stop another leg higher tomorrow will be thin trading conditions
because of the holiday trade. Declining demand for lower yielding assets is
helping to boost the Dollar.Carry-trade
action is also putting pressure on the currency as investors sell Japanese Yen
to buy stocks.
For a while this morning, it looked as if oversold
conditions would trigger a break in the USD CHF back to the old top at 1.0337. This
pair turned around, however, shortly after the New York opening as precious metals broke in
an asset allocation play.Traders should
pay close attention to the gold market.Weaker gold prices will weaken the Swiss Franc.
The USD CAD closed lower as strong equity markets signaled
the possibility of an economic recovery.Traders feel that a recovery in the U.S. markets will lead to an even
stronger rally in the Canadian economy since this economy does not have to grow
much to show strength.Lower gold and
crude prices could limit gains in the Canadian Dollar. At this time, this pair
is ping-ponging between a pair of 50% prices at 1.0598 and 1.0537.
The weakness in the AUD USD and NZD USD while U.S. stock
markets rallied is a strong sign that traders are beginning to focus on
traditional fundamentals rather than chasing higher yields.
equity markets traded better, demand for higher yielding assets fell as traders
reassessed the Fedâ€™s interest rate positions and the strong possibility of a U.S. recovery.Todayâ€™s lower currency markets suggest that
risk sentiment may not be the driving force behind these markets anymore.
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