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Tuesday December 22, 2009 - 09:55:14 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 22,
Fundamental Analysis: Monetary Policy
The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
Meeting Minutes will be published tomorrow (Dec 23). The minutes are a detailed
record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks
It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK.
records the votes of the individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is
hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish
for the GBP.
The Euro broke
the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.4303, but it stopped half way
between the support & the target, and settled for closing on Fridayâ€™s low
1.4260, as yesterdayâ€™s low was 1.4264. It looks from the channel drawn on the
attached chart that 1.4357 is the limit the separates the continuation of the
downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the
moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend
will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridayâ€™s low 1.4260. Short-term
support is at 1.4260 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend,
and would target 1.4176 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at
1.4085. A break of todayâ€™s most important resistance 1.4357 would cause a jump
to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4596.
â€¢ 1.4176: Sep 1st low.
â€¢ 1.4085: the bottom of the
descending channel on the hourly chart.
the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel
with the moving average SMA100.
â€¢ 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to
Exactly as we have
expected, the drop to 90.22 was just a short-term corrective drop, and the price
resumed rising short after, to areas above 90.90 as we said in yesterdayâ€™s
report. Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in yesterdayâ€™s report 90.46
and successfully reached the first suggested target 91.30. But, has trouble
started for this rising move? We can see on the attached chart that the price
hardly reached any area above the moving average SMA100, and stopped close to
the trend line. Thus, we expect the Dollar to settle for the previously
harvested gains, and to start going down from the current levels. Short-term
resistance is 91.30, and breaking it would target 91.93 first, and then the
important 92.31. But what is expected is the opposite of that: the resistance
should hold, and the price should start dropping toward short-term support
90.99, and if we break it we will head towards 90.32 and then
â€¢ 90.99: intraday support.
â€¢ 90.32: previous
important intraday top.
â€¢ 89.50: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from
88.91 to 91.46.
â€¢ 91.30: Nov 4th high.
Sep 3rd low.
â€¢ 92.31: Oct 27th high.
trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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