Asset Allocation Play Continues; Stock Rise, Treasuries Break Overnight
stock indices are trading better overnight.Last nightâ€™s rally took out the recent top in the March E-mini S&P
500, reaching 1114.75.The next upside
targets are 1119.00 to 1122.00.Optimism
over a U.S.
economic recovery is encouraging investors to seek higher yielding stocks at
the expense of Treasuries and Gold.
March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes continue to feel
downside pressure.Japanese investors
are moving money into the Treasuries.Investors are asking for higher yields because of concerns over the
abundance of U.S.
debt and the Treasuryâ€™s ability to pay it back. Asset allocators are pulling
money out of fixed income instruments while seeking higher yields in the stock
The March Euro is trading flat after Moodyâ€™s became the last
of three major credit rating services to downgrade Greeceâ€™s debt.Traders had been waiting for this downgrade
and were not surprised by the news.Although this last downgrade is out of the way, traders are not
optimistic about the Euro.Many feel
that further downgrades of other sovereign debt are likely.Spain
remain targets of the credit rating agencies.There may be a relief rally, now that the news about Greece is out but donâ€™t expect a
change in trend to up.
The March British Pound continued to show weakness
overnight.The charts indicate that
1.5940 is the next downside target.Overnight U.K. GDP was revised upward to show a loss of 0.2%.The previous estimate was for a loss of
0.3%.Pre-report estimates were for a
loss of 0.1%.Like the Euro, thin
holiday trading conditions could lead to a counter-trend move today.
Rising Treasury yields continue to boost the U.S. Dollar
versus the Japanese Yen.Optimism over
an economic recovery in the U.S.
is leading traders to sell the Japanese Yen.The recent rise in Treasury Bond and Note yields have become attractive
to Japanese investors who have to sell the Yen to buy Dollars.
The Dollar continues to strengthen versus the March Swiss
Franc. Not only are traders looking for the U.S. economy to recover faster than
the Swiss economy, but some investors are factoring in the possibility that
Euro Zone sovereign debt issues may spillover to the Swiss financial system.
The strengthening U.S. economy is having a positive
effect on the Canadian Dollar.Although
the U.S. Dollar has faltered against the Canadian the past three days, this
currency remains inside of its October to November range.The mid-point of this range is .9446.This price is an important pivot.Additional pivot price resistance comes in at
February Gold hits its lowest level since early November
overnight.The charts indicate that the
next downside target is $1079.00.Traders should look for a technical bounce on the first test of this
price, but gains will be limited by resistance at $1107.00. Investors are
reallocating funds at this time, and with expectations of a stronger Dollar,
are cutting allocations to gold.
March Crude Oil is trading weaker.Overnight selling pressure has helped form a
new main top at 76.33.The main trend
will turn to up on a move through this level.The first downside target is a .618 level at 73.63.This is followed by a main bottom at
72.53.Supply/demand issues continue to
plague this market.Traders also feel
that OPEC will not cut production while the world is still trying to mount
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