stock indices closed near the high of the day following the release of a better
than expected U.S.
existing home sales report.Traders
increased long positions on expectations of a strong recovery in the U.S. economy.Last nightâ€™s rally took out the recent top in
the March E-mini S&P 500, reaching 1114.75.The next upside targets are 1119.00 to 1122.00.Optimism over a U.S. economic recovery is
encouraging investors to seek higher yielding stocks at the expense of
Treasuries and Gold.
March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes felt downside
pressure all day. The friendly U.S.
existing home sales report was another sign that the U.S. economy is recovering.This is encouraging investors to dump
Treasuries in favor of equities in a traditional asset allocation play.
Japanese investors are moving money into the
Treasuries.Investors are asking for
higher yields because of concerns over the abundance of U.S. debt and
the Treasuryâ€™s ability to pay it back.
The U.S. Dollar rallied following the release of a better
than expected existing home sales report and never relinquished its gains. The
rise in the Dollar following the release of good economic news is another sign
that investors are returning to watching traditional fundamentals for
direction.Gains are being limited this
week because of thin holiday trading.Longs should watch out for pre-holiday profit-taking tomorrow and Thursday.
The Dollar received a boost overnight following another
downgrade of Greeceâ€™s debt,
but gave back those gains when the U.S. released a lower than
estimated final third quarter GDP report.The good news from the housing sector underpinned the Dollar the rest of
the day and the index closed a little off its high.
The March Euro finished lower. The combination of a
downgrade of Greeceâ€™s debt
by Moodyâ€™s and the better than expected U.S. housing report helped to apply
the downside pressure.
The March British Pound added to its overnight weakness
throughout the day after the U.S.
released the friendly existing home sales report to finish lower for the
day.Overnight U.K. GDP was revised
upward to show a loss of 0.2%.The
previous estimate was for a loss of 0.3%.Pre-report estimates were for a loss of 0.1%. Pressure is expected to
continue until the U.K.
economy starts to show growth like its European counterparts.
Rising Treasury yields continued to boost the Dollar against
the Japanese Yen. Optimism over an economic recovery in the U.S. is leading traders to sell the
Japanese Yen.The recent rise in
Treasury Bond and Note yields have become attractive to Japanese investors who
have to sell the Yen to buy Dollars. Upside momentum is signaling a possible
test of the October top at 1.0847 over the near-term.
The Dollar closed firm against the Swiss Franc. Not only are
traders looking for the U.S.
economy to recover faster than the Swiss economy, but some investors are
factoring in the possibility that Euro Zone sovereign debt issues may spillover
to the Swiss financial system.A
mid-session bounce in gold helped limit losses in the March Swiss Franc.
The strengthening U.S. economy is having a positive
effect on the Canadian Dollar.Although
the U.S. Dollar has faltered against the Canadian Dollar the past three days,
this currency remains inside of its October to November range.The mid-point of this range is .9446.This price is an important pivot.Additional pivot price support comes in at
.9505.Look for the Canadian Dollar to
remain inside its trading range until either economy takes the lead.
February Gold hit its lowest level since early November this
morning at $1075.20. This break was essentially a test of a .618 retracement
level at $1079.00.The strong bounce off
of this level could trigger a short-covering rally back to the 50% price level
at $1107.40. Investors are reallocating funds at this time, and with
expectations of a stronger Dollar, are cutting allocations to gold.
March Crude Oil erased its earlier weakness to move higher
on the day, but could not breakout to the upside. Technical support at a .618
retracement level at 73.63 triggered a short-covering rally. The next upside
target is 75.63.Strong upside momentum will
change the trend to up on a move through the last main top at 76.33. Supply/demand issues continue to plague this
market.Traders also feel that OPEC will
not cut production while the world is still trying to mount economic
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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