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Wednesday December 23, 2009 - 09:37:26 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 23, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders
Traders await the announcement of the Core Durable Goods Orders tomorrow (Dec. 24).
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast a reading of 1.00%, up from the previous reading of -1.30%.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.4260, but
it stopped half way between the support & the target, as
yesterdayâ€™s low was 1.4216. It looks from the channel drawn on the
attached chart that 1.4298 is the limit the separates the continuation
of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the
channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below
this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below
Fridayâ€™s low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it
would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4153 and
then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4030. A break of
todayâ€™s most important resistance 1.4298 would cause a jump to 1.4446,
and then to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term
â€¢ 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
â€¢ 1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
â€¢ 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.
â€¢ 1.4298: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
â€¢ 1.4446: Aug 5th high.
â€¢ 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
In opposition to our expectations, Dollar-Yen broke 91.30, penetrating
through the moving average SMA100, and breaking the top of the channel
that we introduced. This break, even though it is in an opposite
direction of our short-term technical outlook, should not be ignored.
The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78
(currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area
that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time.
And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March
19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a
sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the moving average
SMA100 is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price
will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see
â€¢ 90.90: intraday support.
â€¢ 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
â€¢ 89.55: previous important intraday low.
â€¢ 91.78: Jul 8th low.
â€¢ 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h low.
Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex education and trading tools.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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