Well hopefully you entered this Short EUR position when the
candle appeared below the 50 day MA.If
you did then you are ahead 600 pips.The
next question is how do I know when to exit the trade and realize my PNL?This is a very important component of
trading.Before you enter every trade
you not only need to establish a stop loss but also a profit target and a
Originally, when we anticipated this potential EUR Short, we
projected a long term take profit
around 1.4150.That places our target
range between the 200 day MA (currently at 1.4190) and the 38.2% Fibonacci
Retrace level at 1.4118 (see chart below).At a handle of 1.4150 we expect to see the EUR hold some support.Given the Greenback's sharp rise against the
EUR a minor retrace is anticipated.
This is where contingency trade management enters into the
equation.The EUR at this point is
likely to reach its target range of 1.4150.One can make the common mistake of saying â€śitâ€™s close enoughâ€ť, and close
out their position, or one can continue to perform technical analysis as well
as be cognizant of the fundamentals and reevaluate the target levels.
Obviously, we advise the second of the two options.The first order of business is to adjust your
stop.For example, you need to define a
new level which you view as a change of momentum.It might be a close back above the 100 day MA
or a close above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retrace level etc.... This will ensure
that your profits are locked in.
The second order of business is to define a new PNL target
in the case where your existing target looks like it will be taken out handily.On our chart we would look to the next level
where we see potential EUR support. In this case it is the Fibonacci 50%
Retrace level at 1.3810.At this point
into your trade you should also use additional indicators.One common indicator used by traders is the
Relative Strength Index (RSI).Using
additional predetermined indicators will help you manage your position more
Remember, the market as a whole determines where price will
end up, not Fibonacci.You do not want
to close a position before it matures but you also do not want to hold a
position after it matures.Originating a
target level based on sound technicals provides perspective on price
action.Your objective is to make
money.No one gets in at the high and
out at the low, but getting as close as you can will help you complete your
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