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Thursday December 24, 2009 - 10:16:26 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 24, 2009
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The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.4298,
but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as the
high in the past 24 hours was 1.4365, a few pips below short term
resistance 1.4371. This morning the price came back close to this
resistance that we consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it
would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the
descending channel. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it is
not expected after the radical change in the technical outlook that
happened after breaking 1.4298. But if it happens it would target
1.4153 and then 1.4030. A break of todayâ€™s most important resistance
1.4371 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for
the medium-term 1.4596.
â€¢ 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
â€¢ 1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
â€¢ 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.
â€¢ 1.4371: Mondayâ€™s high, and the resistance that the price tried to break twice in the past 24 hours.
â€¢ 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260).
Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78,
and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we
spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against
the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken,
a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a
matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off,
towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to
create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.06 where the
moving average SMA100 & the retest level for the broken channel are
waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop
towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.
â€¢ 91.06: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart, and the retest level for the broken channel.
â€¢ 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
â€¢ 89.55: previous important intraday low.
â€¢ 91.78: Jul 8th low.
â€¢ 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h low.
Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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