The U.S. Dollar is trading lower overnight under thin,
pre-holiday selling pressure.Although
it is difficult to gauge the actual reasons behind the weakness, itâ€™s easy to
speculate that the huge run-up in the Dollar the past few weeks is making it
ripe for profit-taking.
The most important thing that traders should take away from
these markets at this time is that sentiment is shifting away from risk-based
decision making to more fundamentally driven decision making.The rally earlier in the week and yesterdayâ€™s
weakness are prime examples.For
example, traders drove up the Dollar on good existing home sales news on
Tuesday while driving it lower on poor new home sales on Wednesday.Moving forward into the new year, it is
important to note that volatility is likely to rise in the short-run as
speculators and investors adjust to a new way to make trading decisions.
The EUR USD is up again overnight.The chart pattern suggests a possible weekly
reversal up.In addition, this currency
pair could complete a 50% retracement to 1.4680 before new sellers step
in.Debt issues in Greece, Spain
could rear up at anytime which could trigger fresh selling pressure.
Bearish pressure is likely to continue to push the GBP USD
lower, but a short-term retracement may have to occur before fresh selling
pressure begins.The slow growth in the
economy and the U.K.
budget deficit remain the biggest reasons for the weakness.
Profit-taking after a huge run-up the past five days is
helping to weaken the USD JPY.Attractive
yields and improving economic conditions should continue to help the Dollar
rise versus the Yen after the holiday.Look for bullish traders to re-enter the long side after prices retrace
slightly. Upside momentum should then
take this market to the October high at 92.32.
Overbought conditions and end-of-the-year profit-taking is
helping to pressure the USD CHF.Following a huge surge to 1.0507, this currency pair has now retraced
back to the old main top at 1.0337.In
addition, uptrending Gann angle support is underpinning the market at
1.0318.A failure to hold this level
could trigger further weakness.
The USD CAD continues to erode as traders reposition
themselves in anticipation of an improving Canadian economy.Traders feel that an improving U.S. economy
will help improve the Canadian economy at a faster pace than previously
estimated.After testing the upper-band
of a wide trading range at 1.0601 six days ago, this currency pair is now testing
the lower end at 1.0459.The most
important price to watch is 1.0405.Speculators have also been pricing in the possibility of an interest
rate hike more sooner than expected.
Yesterdayâ€™s daily closing price reversal bottom in the AUD
USD was confirmed by the overnight rally.This action is taking place on a major 50% price level at .8780.The strong overnight action is likely
profit-taking and position evening ahead of the new year.With risk sentiment changing, look for
selling pressure to resume after a short-term retracement.
A similar situation is developing in the NZD USD.Traders are taking profits under thin trading
conditions following a sharp sell-off.The pre-hawkish central bank bottom at .7043 was broken a few days ago,
this action puts a bearish spin on the market, but selling pressure is not
likely to resume until after the holidays or until this currency pair mounts a
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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