Thin Holiday Trading; Profit-taking Likely to Pressure Stocks
Despite the higher equity markets overnight, the lack of
upside momentum is making traders leery of a possible short-term profit-taking
correction ahead of tomorrowâ€™s holiday. Weakness in the Dollar could help to
trigger a sell-off.
Treasuries are trading flat to better. March Treasury Bonds
and March Treasury Notes are trying to recover after a hard sell-off this
week.Selling pressure should resume
after the holiday as traders are beginning to price in the possibility of an
interest rate hike in 2010. Aggressive buying by Japanese investors helped to
drive up yields earlier in the week.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower overnight under thin,
pre-holiday selling pressure.Although
it is difficult to gauge the actual reasons behind the weakness, itâ€™s easy to
speculate that the huge run-up in the Dollar the past few weeks is making it
ripe for profit-taking.
The most important thing that traders should take away from
these markets at this time is that sentiment is shifting away from risk-based
decision making to more fundamentally driven decision making.The rally earlier in the week and yesterdayâ€™s
weakness are prime examples.For
example, traders drove up the Dollar on good existing home sales news on
Tuesday while driving it lower on poor new home sales on Wednesday.Moving forward into the new year, it is
important to note that volatility is likely to rise in the short-run as
speculators and investors adjust to a new way to make trading decisions.
The March Euro is up again overnight.The chart pattern suggests a possible weekly
reversal up.In addition, this currency
pair could complete a 50% retracement to 1.4680 before new sellers step
in.Debt issues in Greece, Spain
could rear up at anytime which could trigger fresh selling pressure.
Bearish pressure is likely to continue to push the March
British Pound lower, but a short-term retracement may have to occur before
fresh selling pressure begins.The slow
growth in the economy and the U.K.
budget deficit remain the biggest reasons for the weakness.
Profit-taking and short-covering after a huge sell-off the
past five days is helping to strengthen the March Japanese Yen.Attractive yields and improving economic
conditions should continue to help the Dollar rise versus the Yen after the
holiday.Look for bearish traders to
re-enter the short side after prices retrace slightly.Downside momentum should then take this
market to the October low at 1.0847 following the retracement rally.
Oversold conditions and end-of-the-year profit-taking is
helping to trigger a short-covering rally in the March Swiss Franc.Following a huge break to .9522, this
currency pair has now retraced back to the old main bottom at .9675.In addition, downtrending Gann angle
resistance is providing resistance at .9710.A failure to hold this level could trigger further upside action.
The U.S. Dollar continues to erode versus the Canadian
Dollar as traders reposition themselves in anticipation of an improving
Canadian economy.Traders feel that an
economy will help improve the Canadian economy at a faster pace than previously
estimated.After testing the lower-band
of a wide trading range at .9363 six days ago, this currency pair is now
testing the upper end at .9574.The most
important price to watch is .9609.Speculators have also been pricing in the possibility of an interest
rate hike more sooner than expected.
February Gold is mounting a comeback and is now in a
position to erase this weekâ€™s earlier losses.This market is finding support at a .618 retracement level at
$1079.00.Resistance is at a 50% price
at $1107.40 and a downtrending resistance level at $1107.50.Thin trading conditions could trigger an
upside breakout over this level.Look
for this to occur if the Dollar weakens further.
The main trend turned up on the daily March Crude Oil
chart.This is the first time since
early November that the main trend was up.This market has already retraced 50% of the entire break from 83.44 to
72.53.This price is 77.99.Downtrending Gann angle resistance is at
78.09.The weaker Dollar and improving
economy is leading to speculation that demand may begin to rise.
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