Traders looking for pre-holiday selling pressure in the
equity markets today received a surprise when better than expected initial
claims and durable goods reports helped underpin the markets while driving prices
to their highest levels this week.
Treasuries continued to weaken.March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes sold
off following the better than expected initial claims and durable goods
reports. Signs of an economic recovery should continue to provide upside
pressure on yields as traders price in the strong possibility the Fed will hike
interest rates sooner than expected.
The U.S. Dollar finished lower against a basket of
currencies under thin, pre-holiday trading conditions.Todayâ€™s weakness could have been worse had it
not been for better than expected initial claims and durable goods.Both reports signaled an improving economy.
Although it is difficult to gauge the actual reasons behind
the weakness, itâ€™s easy to speculate that the huge run-up in the Dollar the
past few weeks is making it ripe for profit-taking.
The most important thing that traders should take away from
these markets this week is that sentiment is shifting away from risk-based
decision making to more fundamentally driven decision making.The rally on Tuesday, Wednesdayâ€™s weakness
and todayâ€™s action are prime examples.For example, traders drove up the Dollar on good existing home sales
news on Tuesday while driving it lower on poor new home sales on
Wednesday.Thursdayâ€™s reports helped
stop a possible sharp decline.
Moving forward into the new year, it is important to note
that volatility is likely to rise in the short-run as speculators and investors
adjust to a new way to make trading decisions.
The March Euro finished a little better.The chart pattern suggests a possible weekly
reversal up.In addition, this currency
pair could complete a 50% retracement to 1.4680 before new sellers step in.Debt issues in Greece,
Spain and Portugal could rear up at anytime
which could trigger fresh selling pressure.
Bearish pressure continued to push the March British Pound
lower, but short-term traders should watch for a possible retracement before
fresh selling pressure begins.The slow
growth in the economy and the U.K.
budget deficit remain the biggest reasons for the weakness.
Profit-taking after a huge run-up the past five days helped
to pressure the Dollar against the Japanese Yen, but better than expected
economic news limited losses.Attractive
yields and improving economic conditions should continue to help the Dollar
rise versus the Yen after the holiday.Look for bullish traders to re-enter the long side after prices retrace
slightly.Downside momentum should then
take this market to the October low at 1.0847.
Oversold conditions and end-of-the-year profit-taking helped
to rally the March Swiss Franc this week.Following a huge break to .9522, this currency pair has now retraced
back to the old main bottom at .9675.In
addition, downtrending Gann angle resistance provided resistance at .9710.The technical bounce to the downside
following a test of this level this morning proved its importance. A failure to
hold this angle could trigger further strength.
The March Canadian Dollar continued to erode resistance overnight
but sellers came in when this currency hit the upper end of the retracement
zone at .9574. A technical bounce could drive this market back to .9505 to
.9446. Investors have been repositioning themselves in anticipation of an
improving Canadian economy.Traders feel
that an improving U.S.
economy will help better the Canadian economy at a faster pace than previously
estimated.After testing the lower-band
of a wide trading range at .9363 on December 17th, this currency pair is now
testing the upper end at .9574.The most
important price to watch is .9609.Speculators have also been pricing in the possibility of an interest
rate hike more sooner than expected.
February Gold mounted a comeback while erasing almost all of
this weekâ€™s losses.This market found
support at a .618 retracement level at $1079.00.Resistance is at a 50% price at $1107.40 and
a downtrending resistance level at $1107.50.This market appears to be ready to launch a rally to $1151.35 before
another new lower top is formed.
The main trend turned up on the daily March Crude Oil
chart.This is the first time since
early November that the main trend was up.This market broke through a 50% price level at 77.99 and a downtrending
Gann angle at 78.09. This indicates that this rally is more than
short-covering.Look for a further rally
Forex Trading News
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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