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Monday December 28, 2009 - 09:58:07 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/12/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 28,
Fundamental Analysis: CB Consumer
The CB Consumer Confidence report will be published tomorrow
The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence
in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer
spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings
point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading
of 49.50, down from the previous 53.00.
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Thursdayâ€™s
report 1.4371, but settled for a test of the resistance 1.4410 (Thursdayâ€™s high
was 1.4416). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity after breaking
the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but failure at 1.4410
might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness. And since it is an
important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it
would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending
channel. Short-term support is Thursdayâ€™s resistance 1.4371, and if this
important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292
(important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A
break of todayâ€™s most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502,
and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.
â€¢ 1.4371: Thursdayâ€™s resistance that became todayâ€™s
short term support.
â€¢ 1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to
the rising trend line from last weekâ€™s low on intraday charts.
important intraday support from last week.
1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it on Thursday.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the
whole move from 1.5139 to
Though it tried more
than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost
no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is
invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips
below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention
92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the
Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the
price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the
retest level for the broken channel is waiting, will follow. And if this level
is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are
to see 89.55.
â€¢ 90.90: the retest level for the
â€¢ 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to
â€¢ 89.55: previous important intraday low.
â€¢ 91.78: Jul 8th low.
â€¢ 92.31-92.52: resistance
area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h
---Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for information on
Central Banks and trading
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