European Market Update: Subdued trading characterizes session as various centers around the globe continued to celebrate public holidays
Monday, December 28, 2009
European Market Update: Subdued trading characterizes session as various centers around the globe continued to celebrate public holidays
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FI) Finland Dec Consumer Confidence: 14.4 v 11.5e; Business Confidence: -9.0 v -17.0e - (CZ) Czech Dec Business Confidence: -2.5 v -4.8 prior; Consumer Confidence: -6.8 v -8.0 prior; Consumer & Bus Confidence: -3.3 v -5.4 prior - (SP) Spanish Oct Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -18.0% v -4.2% prior, Mortgages-capital Loaned Y/Y: -37.1% v -14.3% prior - (TT) Taiwan Nov Leading Index: 0.7% v 0.5%, Coincident Index: 1.1% v 1.6% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Nov Trade Balance (HKD): -20.7B v -21.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.6%e (first increase since Oct 2008); Imports Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.1%e - (GE) German Dec CPI Saxony M/M: 0.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Entering a second consecutive abbreviated trading week, those European equity markets which are open are continuing last weeks end-of-year-rally. With London, and the London Stock Exchange, along with the majority of Commonwealth states celebrating the Boxing Day bank holiday, already thin holiday volumes have been taken down another notch. Through the first two hours of trade, Deutsche Bourse volumes were down 50% while the CAC40 was off 60%. In this light environment, trading direction and themes have been sparse. Commentary from an executive at Scania [SCVB.SW] appeared to pour cold water on a possible tri-party action with VW [VOW3.GE] combining the trucking assets of the company along with Man AG [MAN.GE]. Continued commodity gains have boosted energy and exploration companies. Other strong movers included the broader European utility sector, which has outperformed on both the CAC and DAX, with E.On [EOAN.GE], GDF GSZ.FR] and Suez Environment [SEV.FR] leading movers.
-Individual equities: Daimler [DAI.GE]: Plan to re-task workers as Sindelfingen Mercedes Benz facility -Focus Magazine. || VW [VOW3.GE]: Audi unit investments seen at â‚¬7.3B for 2009-2012; Plan to offer total of 42 models in 2015. || Scania [SCVB.SW]: Scania CEO skeptical of MAN merger assumptions in interview - Die Welt. || Seat Pagine Giall [PG.IT]: Reportedly may lower FY10 earnings guidance; Seeking to extend debt refinancing agreements. || Nestle [NESN.SZ]: CEO: Plans to double sales in Brazil by 2012 to BRL31B - Folha de Sao Paulo. ||
- Speakers: PBoC's advisor Fan Gang: reiterates views that Global economy remains unstable with two to three years of low growth likely. He reiterated that the outlook remained uncertain for developed economies. China needs measures to guard against bubbles forming from rising asset prices and hot money inflows and added that one cannot assume that counter-crisis measures wouldl be available 'forever'. China has seen rising hot money inflows and reflected in stock and property volatility. He forecasted China's 2010 GDP seen between 8% to 9%. On the currency front he echoed the growing government view that there was no reason that the yuan currency (CNY) would depreciate against any currency, including the USD *** Association of Southeast Asian Nations along with China, Japan and South Korea signed an agreement to create $120B foreign currency reserve fund called the Chiang Mai initiative. (Reminder: The countries agreed in May that Southeast Asian nations will contribute 20% to the pool; Japan will provide $38.4B; China and Hong Kong together will add another $38.4B. South Koreas contribution will be $19.2B)
- Currencies: Subdued trading was the theme as various centers around the globe continued to celebrate public holidays. The USD was little changed from its opening levels in Asia and continued to consolidate its recent gains against the major pairs. Dealers did note that despite rising and widening yields the dollar seemed to be at a crossroad and struggling to garner additional strength. Over the course of the last week the dollar did benefit from the eventually interest rate increases that might come later in 2010 coupled with sovereign credit concerns at the euro-zone periphery. EUR/USD was just below the 1.44 level throughout the European morning. The GBP was steady despite some adverse press reports that political and budget strife could erode the pound (See in the papers section below).
- Fixed Income: Volumes in Bund futures have been predictably thin with less than 50k contracts traded at the time of writing. Cash yields are higher and the curve has flattened with the short end underperforming and the benchmark 10y Bund yield is up 3bps at 3.35%. In equally subdued trading, UST's have seen some bear steepening, with the 10y yield adding another 4bps to rise above 3.84%. With a deluge of supply due this week, there is a real possibility that the 10y note could make a run at 4% before the year is out. - with the sole technical obstacle - the August high yield of 3.85% - but a basis point away The Treasury's $44B 2 year note auction should generate some attention later in the New York afternoon in what is shaping up as an otherwise quiet session. Those traders that have bothered to show up will be eyeing at the 1% level - the last time a 2 year note auction stopped out above that mark was in September.
- Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Dep CEO Ananenkov commented that the company sought to purchase all Sakahalin-1 gas produced from Exxon in 2010. The company would Increased Kirinsky field reserves by 25% to 100BCM and begin exploration drilling at Kirinsky block next year
- In the papers: London Telegraph article noted that the British Pound (GBP) might decline beyond parity with the euro according to the Center for Economics and Business (CEBR). The report cited the state of the UK's finances and concern about governmental policies. According to the Center for Economics and Business, ratings agencies are "looking for an excuse" to lower the UK's AAA sovereign rating. Other themes in the UK Times and FT have focused on retail sales figures over the Boxing day weekend with sales figures seen +18.65 y/y. Post-holiday sales are seen as being driven by timing (weekend), weather and promotional levels. Sales levels in the US in the same period appear to be in line with the European figures. US based NY Post has looked at efforts by CBS and NBC to place commercial advertisements during the 2010 Super Bowl and Winter Olympics, finding that both channels are continuing to struggle to fill slots at asked prices.
- Geo-political Over the Holiday weekend, Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to ignite an explosive device aboard a Delta Operated Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian national is believed to have received training in Yemen, what is now speculated to be a new front in the US GWOT. Following the failed attempt, the US DOT and Homeland Security have implemented new security measures at check in and whilst onboard. Violence in Iran has accelerated following massed action as Shiite Muslims celebrated Ashura on Sunday. In the ensuing events, upwards of 15 demonstrators, including a nephew of failed presidential candidate Mousavi were killed following clashed with security forces. In Japan, Fin Min Fujii has been hospitalized following high blood pressure issues. It is expected that the 77 year old Fin Min will stay in the hospital for a period of 10-days following treatment. Speculation regarding the standing of Irish Fin Min Lenihan has grown following the confirmation that he was diagnosed with cancer this weekend. Immediate signs seem to indicate that Linehan plans to continue serving in his roll.
***Notes: - China Premier Wen commented that China refuses to yield to foreign pressure for Yuan currency to appreciate - Japan Fin Min Fujii hospitalized for high blood pressure; Ireland's Finance Minister Lenihan diagnosed with cancer - Canadian markets closed for Holiday
***Looking Ahead: -10:30 (US) Dec Dallas Fed Manf. Activity: 2.0%e v 0.3% prior - (IS) Israel Central Bank Base Rate Announcement: no change expected from the current 1.00% level
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.