Monday December 28, 2009 - 20:33:27 GMT
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AUD/USD - Assessing Wave Structure - Daily Technical Update (12/28/09)
- 4H: The AUD/USD followed through after the bullish divergence last Wednesday. (Refer to Daily Video Technical Update 12.23.2009).
- The pair rallied from 0.8750 to 0.8875 and in the 4H time-frame is considered a single swing.
- Looking back, we see that declines have been in a 3-wave structure,
or that of an impulse wave, while rallies, have been in the 2-wave
fashion. This means we may want to be a bit more patient stalking this
retracement, as there may be a second leg.
- Now if the current rally swing stops as it tests the 50-MA, there
may be a decline and the fashion of this decline may be clue to whether
there will be 2-leg correction, or whether this will be a abcd
retracement or simply a sideways correction which means the 0.8900 is
the short-term resistance.
- If the decline is slow and a bullish signal follows we may have a
test of some retracement patterns. 50% is near 8.8950, and 61.8% is
near 0.9000. Again, depending on the manner of the rally â€“ if it is not
too aggressive â€“ we may look for bearish continuation after topping
action near these retracement levels.
- Daily: Looking at the Daily time-frame, we see
that this retracement was the anticipated pullback, from which a swing
to 0.8350 can be projected.
Commodity Trading Advisor
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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
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