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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/12/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis
Dec 29, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: KOF Leading
Traders of CHF await the publication of the KOF Leading
Indicators tomorrow (Dec 30).
The KoF Leading Indicators Index determines
overall economic health by combining 12 indicators related to consumer
confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing.
indicates the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland.
higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
Analysts predict a reading of 1.62, down from the previous 1.80.
The Euro came back to test
the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.4410 for the second time, after
testing it previously on Thursday. But it stopped accurately at this level
(yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.4412). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity
after breaking the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but
failure at 1.4410 might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness.
And since it is an important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the
day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking
the descending channel. Short-term support is Thursdayâ€™s resistance 1.4371, and
if this important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292
(important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A
break of todayâ€™s most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502,
and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.
â€¢ 1.4371: Thursdayâ€™s resistance that became todayâ€™s
short term support.
â€¢ 1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to
the rising trend line from last weekâ€™s low on intraday charts.
important intraday support from last week.
1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it twice on Thursday,
and then again yesterday.
â€¢ 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4596: Fibonacci
38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to
Though it tried more
than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost
no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is
invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (the high until the moment
of preparing the report is 91.76), and if broken, a test of the area that caught
our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is
broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other
hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards
90.90 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is
broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to
â€¢ 90.90: the rising trend line from
â€¢ 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
89.55: previous important intraday low.
Jul 8th low.
â€¢ 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th &
Sep 21st tops.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h low.
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