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Tuesday December 29, 2009 - 10:55:08 GMT
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European Market Update: Spanish and Swedish retail sales data weaker than expectations

Tuesday, December 29, 2009 5:50:51 AM

 European Market Update: Spanish and Swedish retail sales data weaker than expectations


- (SZ) Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.276 v 0.876 prior; highest level in 14 months
- (FR) French Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.4%e
- (SP) Spanish Nov Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y: -4.3% v -3.9% prior, Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -2.6%e
- (IT) Italian Dec Retailers Confidence General: 96.9 v 101.8 prior, Business Confidence:82.6 v 79.7e; Services Survey: -3 v -2 prior
- (SW) Swedish Nov Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.4%e
- (HK) Hong Kong No Retail Sales - Volume Y/Y: 9.8% v 6.4%e; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 11.7% v 8.0%e
- (GE) German Dec CPI - Brandenburg M/M: 0.8% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.2% prior
- (GE) German Dec CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.8% v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3% prior
- (UK) BoE Q3 Housing Equity Withdrawal: -£4.9B v -£6.4Be
- (GE) German Dec CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia: 0.8% v -0.2% prior, Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.4% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.6%e; first annual drop since the data series started in 1989

- Equities: -In equities: Coming off a 4-day holiday, London markets have rejoined Europe in trading today. Making up for yesterday's missed session, the FTSE100 gapped up on the open, setting new 2009 highs and erasing all losses posted following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Continuing the expected trend, themes, volumes and news flow has remained light ahead of the new year's holiday. Commodity gains, specifically in copper following the end of fears regarding Chilean industrial action moved related names higher (Vedanta [VED.UK], Lonmin [LMI.UK] etc). In M&A news/speculation, further
UK news sources have stated that RyanAir [RYA.UK] looks set to re-bid for AerLingus [AERL.UK] following the expiration of a 1-year no-bid lock up period. Miner Fresnillo [FRES.UK] upped the offer prices for Canadian based Canplats to C$4.80/share. As mentioned, trading volumes have remained thin with all bourses trading well below moving averages; in the first two hours of trade, volumes on the FTSE, CAC and DAX were all down approx 50%.

-Individual equities: BASF [BAS.GE]: CEO: Sees first signs of a recovery taking hold in chemical industry - Die Weit. || ING [INGA.NV]: To sell 50% stake in Pacific Antai to China Construction bank. || ArcelorMittal [MT.NV]: Subsidiary issues $750M privately placed mandatory convertible bond (approx 1% of market cap). || RyanAir [AERL.UK]: Ryanair could place a new bid for the company - Scotsman/Daily Mail. || Fresnillo [
FRES.UK]: Penmont submits revised proposal to acquire Canplats Resources Corporation for C$4.80/shr (C$4.40/share prior). ||

- Speakers: ECB's Mersch reiterated the central bank view that Euro-Zone 2010 growth outlook to be moderate and fragile ***Indian Dep Central Banker: Reiterated the RBI view that policy challenge was to address food supply constraints on broader price pressures. He noted that the perception that India might see surge in capital inflows and that the economic situation supported shifting its policy focus to managing growth and containing inflationary pressures ***South Korea Central Bank (BoK) minutes voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady at 2.00% back on Nov 11th. Some members noted that it was too early to call recovery in private sector and that an easing policy bias was still necessary for recovery to take hold *** India PM Econ Panel's Rangarajan commented that he expected current year capital inflows to reach $57B (in line with the Gov't expectations of inflows seen between $57-$60B) *** Italy Treasury stated that it received around €95B in tax amnesty funds with over 98% Of amnesty total repatriated to Italy *** Brazil Budget Min Bernardo stated that 2010 tax revenues could rise by 11%. He noted that the increase in minimum wage would not negatively affect its fiscal policies

- Currencies: The USD continued to consolidate its Dec gains against the European pairs despite the continued rise in the
US bond yields. As noted on Monday, dealer sentiment took notice that despite rising and widening yields, the dollar has stalled to garner additional strength from higher interest rate. Some mild stop hunts were elected as CFTC data noted that currency speculators have gone long the USD for the first time since May. The dollar was off its worst levels as the NY morning approached.

 - AUD/USD was firmer on chatter of a large fixing-related buy order rumored to be over A$500M.

-The USD/JPY probed towards the 92 handle as the US-Japan 10 year interest rate spread widened to hit a 2 year high. Dealers did note good buying interest from fund managers in the pair but the momentum was stymied by the emergence of Japanese export orders layered towards the 92 handle.

-CHF currency was firmer against the majors and aided by the Swiss consumption index hitting its highest levels in 14-months. EUR/CHF cross moving back towards pre-March intervention levels

- Fixed Income: Government bond yields have drifted higher in all three major markets this morning and despite thin volumes some interesting technical/psychological levels are being probed. Gilts have been the worst performer, with the benchmark 10y sailing through the 4% mark and hitting its highest yields of the year(Intraday day highs thus far stand at 4.075%) The Us 10y Note yield is up a basis point and testing the august peak of 3.85%, while the Bund is relatively unmoved at 3.35%. The short end of the curve has be hit hardest in Germany, in response to yesterdays auction and Fed term deposit induced flattening moves in UST's. German 2s10s has narrowed 5bps to 207bps while US 2s10s shed another 6bps to touch 278bps. European peripherals have firmed up against the core with risk appetite building in other asset classes.
Greece has led the way, -3bps at Bunds +236 while Spain has also traded well -2bps and below Bunds+70bps for the first time in two weeks.

- Energy: Russia and Ukraine reach an accord with regards to oil transits for 2010 ***CN
OOC [883.HK] Parent company to invest about CNY50B in Guangdong province projects in the next several years - China Securities Journal

- Commodities: India raised iron ore duty with new duties to apply to all grades of ore. Federation of Indian Mineral Industries Association stated that India's FY10 iron ore exports are likely to fall by 10M metric tons to around 96M tons following the government's move to levy a 5% export tax on iron ore fines

- In the papers: WSJ commented on the earlier move by the Fed to sell interest-bearing term deposits to banks The purpose of the new facility is to help ensure that the Fed can implement an exit strategy before liquidity in the banking system leads to inflation. The new facility will encourage banks to park cash reserves at the Fed as opposed to lending them out. According to JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli the move by the Fed is another step forward in the exit-infrastructure, but it is been well flagged in advanced, so the move is not a surprise. *** The WSJ looked at locomotive manufacturer China CNR [601299.CH] as the firm debuted with the smallest first day gain for any Shanghai IPO in 2009. Trading of the 2.5B share (some analysts had seen offering of up to 3B shares) offering failed to meet an expected 15%+ rise, closing up 2.3%.

- Geo-Political : Russian Dep Prime Min Sechin has stated that
Russia has moved into final stages of oil transit negotiations with Ukraine, and that shipments to Western Europe via Ukraine would be continued. Contract agreements with Belarus have yet to be finalized and Polish and German delivery have yet to be assured. Speaking on the issue, PM Putin reiterated that Ukraine continues to abuse its geographic role. Putin, speaking on Russian-US arms treaties, stated that US missile defense, and a lack of clarity of the new US program was the main hindrance to treaty completion. Putin noted that Russia would continue developing offensive weapons to maintain parity. Japan and India have inked a new bilateral security agreement that includes regular, ministry level meetings. The agreement comes as US-Japanese strategic relations remain strained following issues with Okinawa basing and PM Hatoyama's perceived new emphasis on Korean/Chinese interplay. Chinese officials have completed the planned execution of British national Akmal Shaikh following conviction of drug charges in 2007.

- German inflation data registering strong MoM gains, but remain well below the ECB's inflation target
- Spanish and Swedish retail sales data weaker than expectations
- Twenty-year anniversary of the all-time high of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38, 876
- WSJ: Fed proposes selling interest bearing term deposits to banks to drain extra cash.
- US/Japan 10 year bond spread widened to a 2 year high
-Russia and Ukraine reach an accord with regards to 2010 oil transits

***Looking Ahead:
- (GE) German Dec CPI - Baden Wuerttemburg M/M: % v -0.2% prior, Y/Y: % v 0.4% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI M/M: 0.6%e v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.4% prior
- (GE) German Nov CPI- EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7%e v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.3% prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 1.4T prior; Private Bank Lending: No est v 807M prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales: No estimate v +-.6% prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No estimate v 1.5% prior.
- 9:00 (US) Oct S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 147.00e v 146.51 prior, S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY: -7.2%e v -9.36% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Consumer Confidence: 53.0e v 49.5 prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $42B in 5 year notes
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 5.1% prior; Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 17.6% prior



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