Tuesday December 29, 2009 - 11:58:03 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 29-Dec-2009 - 1156 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0300/05...Bearish
R: 1.0350 / 1.0390 / 1.0425-50
S: 1.0290 / 1.0225-00 / 1.0130
The Support at 1.0290 mentioned in the morning edition held during the day and Swiss has risen slightly from the day's low of 1.0292. The Resistance at 1.0390 is keeping the pair pressured on the downside and we may expect it to hold in the US session today. As mentioned earlier the broader picture remains bearish and a break below the Support at 1.0290 might pull it down towards 1.0200.
On the other hand, if the Support at 1.0290 continue to hold and the pair gains upside momentum, we might see a rise towards the Resistance at 1.0390 in the coming sessions. A strong break above this Resistance might increase the chances of a further rise towards 1.0450.
GBP-USD @ 1.6016/19...Ranged
R: 1.6051-81 / 1.6105-21 / 1.6172
S: 1.5907-5881 / 1.5773
Cable did spike above the 200-DMA and has been trading lower since then. The Resistance region of 1.6051-81 which contains the 200-DMA, 13-DMA and the Trendline formed by joining the highs of 3-Dec (1.6721) and 16-Dec (1.6409) is likely to provide stiff Resistance going forward for the rest of the week. On the downside, there's important Support in the region 1.5907-1.5881. The pair is likely to oscillate between the Support and Resistance zones mentioned above. For today, the Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6172 and 1.5889 respectively.
Having fallen below the 200-DMA last week, the pair has rendered itself bearish for a test of 55-week MA which is at 1.5636 presently. Till it continues to stay below this 200-DMA, the bearish sentiments would be alive. The weekly charts suggest that the pair is in the process of making a double top, which shall be confirmed only on a break below the 55-week MA. Till then, the pair is moving in a long term range of 1.56-1.70.
AUD-USD @ 0.8975/78...Might rise towards 0.9030
R: 0.8985 / 0.9030-60 / 0.9090
S: 0.8930 / 0.8890 / 0.8835
Aussie has broken above the Resistance at the 100-DMA (0.8890) below which it has been trading over the last few days and has risen sharply during the day. If the current upside momentum continues, a break above the immediate Resistance at 0.8985 might take it further up towards 0.9030-60 in the coming sessions. Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now and we expect the Support at 0.8835 (61.8% Fibonacci Fan line Support) to hold in the US session today if any sharp downmove breaking below 0.8900 is seen.
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