Wednesday December 30, 2009 - 04:17:40 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Dec-2009 - 0333 GMT
The US stock indices ended flat yesterday. The S&P Case Schiller HPI and Consumer confidence numbers were not able to excite the market enough to keep the 6 days of uptrend intact. However, the Dow (10545.41) continued to stay above 10500.
The Asian indices are trading mixed. The Nikkei (10610.66) is trading 0.26% lower while the Shanghai (3242.70) is trading 0.96% higher. The Sensex (17401.56) had closed marginally higher yesterday and looks bullish having broken above 17300 last week.
Crude (78.74) is continuing to trade strong. The Cold weather and the expectation of further drop in the US Crude inventories which is due today is keeping the price higher although the dollar remained strong. With Support in 78.15-00 region we may expect a rise towards 80.50 in the coming days. However, a break below 78 might pull it down towards 77.
Gold (1094.50) has broken below 1100 yesterday and is continuing to trade lower as the dollar is trading strong. On the downside significant Support is seen in 1075-50 region which might be tested in the coming days if it continues to trade below 1100.
The Euro (1.4313) has fallen from yesterday's high of 1.4458. The significant Support at the 200-DMA (1.4220) might be tested today, if it continues to trade lower. Dollar-Yen (92.13) has broken above the Resistance at 91.90. With Support at 91.70 we may expect it to rise towards 92.50. The Euro-Yen (131.92) Cross has come off from yesterday's high of 132.60. Immediate Support is seen at 131.70.
The Pound (1.5884) has fallen sharply from yesterday's high of 1.6067, failing to see a strong break above the Support-turned-Resistance at the 200-DMA (1.6058). We might see 1.5820-00 on the downside today. Aussie (0.0.8911) might be ranged between 0.8830-0.9000 today.
The Korean-Won is trading near 1169. Dollar-Rupee closed at 46.66/67 yesterday and has opened today at 46.7550/77.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25% yesterday. The yields however fell after the $42 bn 5Y note auction went off successful. The yields on 2Y and 10Y benchmark T-notes fell 3 and 6 bps to quote at 1.07% and 3.78% respectively. The 3-month T-Bills have however gone up 4 bps to quote at 0.10% bringing the TED Spreads down to 15 bps.
No major data release today.
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