Friday February 25, 2005 - 01:19:33 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 25th February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 105.60 ... 105.99 ... 106.24 ... 106.55
Support....: 105.12 ... 104.80 ... 104.56 ... 104.30
Mixed - waiting for breaks
Although we have seen price break the 105.35 resistance it has still to break the critical 105.60 level. before we get too bullish we need to see this and should also be cautious until the 105.86 level is broken. Even then we see next resistance at 105.99-106.24 which could provoke a pullback. Thus a much stronger break will be that of 106.24 which we feel would then imply gains above 106.84 and to the 107.28 area.
Gains have been seen to just under the critical 105.60 resistance and while this holds there is still a chance that we see some stronger moves lower. However, given that both sides are still technically possible we would prefer to wait for a break below 105.10-15 and then 104.80. Below this lower support would provide more impetus lower and should then retest the 104.30 area and possibly down to the 103.82 region once again.
Elliott Wave Comments:
23rd February 2005
The loss of 104.63 and 104.28 requires us to consider an alternative structure. we feel that the move down to 103.82 has completed two ABC patterns and could theoretically cause a move higher from here. This would require a break above the 104.70-84 Fibonacci resistance, the 105.14 pivot resistance and most importantly above the 105.86 Wave x. Until then we must be aware of a the risk of a final ABC pattern lower which we feel could reach the 102.78-89 area. Any lower than this and the alternative count in blue becomes valid which would then call for a Wave -iii- down to the 101.67-82 lows.
24th February 2005
The rally from 103.82 has not yet confirmed the upside and still risks becoming a Wave (x) from where a third ABC pattern can decline and should move to the approximate area ofd a 76.4% pullback around 102.89. Break level for this recovery to turn bullish is at 105.60-86 and would imply the start of a stronger move higher.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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