European market Update: USD continues to benefit from the view that the US economy on course to maintain recovery mode
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
European market Update: USD continues to benefit from the view that the US economy on course to maintain recovery mode
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FI) Finland Nov Prelim Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.1% v -1.8% prior - (TH) Thailand Nov Total Trade Balance: $1.1B v $1.7B prior, Current Account: 1.3B v $1.5Be - (TH) Thailand Nov Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 8.9% v 9.5%e; Capacity Utilization: 65.4% v 66.3% prior - (HU) Hungary Q3 Current Account: â‚¬698M v â‚¬475M prior - (SP) Spain Q3 House Prices for Total Homes Q/Q: % v -2.5%e; Y/Y: % v -9.3%e - (CZ) Czech Nov Prelim Industrial Output Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.5%e - (FR) French Q3 Debt to GDP Q/Q: 76% v 74% prior; Gross Public Debt at â‚¬1.45T, up 2.1% q/q - (SP) Spanish Oct Current Account: -â‚¬4.2B v -â‚¬4.4B prior - (SW) Swedish Nov Trade Balance (SEK): 1.8B v 5.8B prior - (EU) Euro-zone Nov M3 Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.4%e; 3 month avg: 0.6% v 0.8%e - (IT) Italian Nov PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -3.5%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Leading Indicator: 101.7 v 101.0 prior - (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: -14.0% v -7.7% prior - (IT) Italian Oct Large Company Employment Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.0% prior - (SZ) Dec KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.68 v 1.73e - (UK) UK Nov House prices M/M: +0.9%; Y/Y: -0.3% - land Registry
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: In the final wind-down of 2009, equity markets in Europe followed a mixed session in Asia by rolling over on the open and moving decisively lower past 4:30EST. Trading today in Germany will be a shortened session with floor trading on Deutsche Borse coming to a halt at 14:00CET. That close will represent the end of trading for both 2009 and the first decade of the 21st Century (DAX Index entered 2009 at 4856, DAX Index entered decade (2000-2009) at 6961). Downside trading in the session has been led by mixed themes with a broad reverse from early trends as basic resource and heavy industrial names surrendered prior gains. Insurance names moved lower, following comments from Munich Re [MUV2.GE] on the possibility of having to raise rates due to upward trends in catastrophe losses. Banks have traded mixed to down, with emphasis on German names following CSU comments on the necessity of any German Bank Bailout fund needing to be paid for from private sources. A FT article regarding a slow recovery in emerging market demand for cement products (as states lower infrastructure spend) has pressures Lafarge [LG.FR], and Holcim [HOLN.SZ]. A notable outperformer has been Petrofac [PFC.UK] that announced new operations in Turkmenistan. As has been the theme throughout the holiday period, volumes across the board continue a extremely low levels.
-Individual equities: Segro [SGRO.UK]: Disposes retail JV to BritishLand for Â£26.9M. || Accident Exchange [ACE.UK]: Reports H1 Pretax profit Â£4M v Â£2.4M y/y; Rev Â£62M v Â£85M y/y. || Areva [CEI.FR]: Signs letter of intent with Fresno Nuclear Energy on cooperation on 2 EPR reactors in California. || Siemens [SIE.GE]: Reportedly has received a train production contract from Russian city of Sochi. || Basilea [BSLN.SZ]: FDA Issues Ceftobiprole Complete Response Letter; cannot approve the application in its present form. ||
- Speakers: India Fin Min Mukherjee commented that the country's high budget deficit at 6.8% to GDP for FY10 cannot be sustained for a prolong period of time. India needs to balance its fiscal deficit and economic growth ***China State Council pledged to implement measures to attract foreign direct as it adjust where foreign companies could invest. It sought FDI in high technology, advanced manufacturing, services and renewable energy and would encourage foreign investors to participate in M&A*** Conference Board Senior Economist commented that the third consecutive slowdown in the rising trend of the Leading Economic Indicators for the Euro Area reinforces concerns about a fragile recovery. The weakening in the confidence indicators behind this slowing suggests that the current recovery of economic activity in the short term may be too weak to stabilize employment and current economic conditions."
- Currencies: The dollar was poised to post its first monthly gain against the Euro currency since June as it looked to build upon its recently found momentum that has been aided by rising US yields. The shifting outlook for US interest rates has pushed the dollar to two-month high against the yen and GBP pairs. EUR/USD trading in the mid 143 area throughout the morning while GBP/USD tested 1.5860. - USD/JPY was holding above the 92 handle as various credit agencies weighed in on Japan's sovereign rating outlook during the Asian session. - Overall the market conditions would likely keep participant on the sidelines due to the year-end conditions, but that does not exclude choppy, sporadic price action. -Looking ahead the 2010 appears to be unfolding a theme of concerns over the public finances following the plethora of stimulus measures provided by governments through 2009 and the increasing high risk of such lofty levels of spending becoming unsustainable.
- Fixed Income: Italy rounded out Euro-zone issuance for 2009 with the solid if unspectacular sale of â‚¬8B in 3 and 10y BTP's - after which annual sovereign issuance in the Euro-zone ended just shy of â‚¬1T. The inflation hawks who were ultimately proved wrong in 2009 were dealt a final blow with the last M3 reading for the year undershooting expectations. At -0.2% it was the first time M3 has gone negative and in fact the weakest on record. There was no reaction whatsoever but the market will be watching the space closely into the New Year with the ECB widely expected to slowly inch towards the exit doors. Things are getting ultra slow and volumes are thin, but for UST traders there is still $32B in new 7s to contend with later this afternoon and initial jobless claims numbers tomorrow to keep people awake.
- Energy: South Korea's National Pension Service might invest several trillion won in foreign uranium and oil reserves according to the South Korean Press
- In the papers: London Independent article noted that Over the first 3 months of 2010, UK petrol prices may rise by 5p/liter adding that petrol prices could possibly rise twice as much by the end of 2010. According to RMI Independent Petrol Retailers, it is possible that prices could rise by 10p/liter in 12 months due to taxes and duty increase. The forecast by RMI does not take into account any increases in oil prices. *** : Key themes in global broad sheets have included speculation that GMAC is in line for a further US gov injection to the tune of $3.5B, bringing its aid to approx $16B in the WSJ. The Journal also took a look at the role Regional Airlines play in large carrier's flight network and the new pressures parents are seen applying to lower costs. The FT has highlighted the decision by PWC to move ahead with a disbursement of billions of dollars in assets from Lehman that has been frozen since Sept 2008. The NYT has looked at the prospects of the 2013 expiration of the â‚¬50B EU farming subsidy program that came into force in 2005. Global attention has been given to yesterday's comments from Russian PM Putin regarding plans to curb speculative capital inflows.
-Geo-Political: -Geo/political: Failed suicide bomber AbdulMutallab continues to be more closely linked to al Qaeda with confirmation from the Obama administration of statements from German and UK officials. AbdulMutallab's training and Yemen connection will pose vexing issue for US strategy regarding GuantanamoBay and use of force in prosecution of the GWOT. *** In Afghanistan, coming off one broadly fraudulent election this past summer, the central government has announced plans for a parliamentary election amidst a US troop surge in Spring 2010. *** Iran has continued its diplomatic threats, vowing to 'slap in the face' the UK for its perceived role in recent demonstrations while the US is reported to be considering a new wave of targeted sanctions***Iran is close to an agreement to secretly imports over 1,300 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. *** In European issues, the US has rejected concerns aired by Russian PM Putin regarding specifics and details of a missile defense system. ***Poland expressed some concerns regarding energy transportation via Belarus from Russian sources. ***In East Asia, a Chinese Rear Admiral proposed the construction of overseas naval support bases to provide forward operating logistics to deployed fleets. Bases would be targeted in South West and East Africa to support on-going anti-pirate operations in the region.
***Notes: - Asian and European stocks on a down note but hold on to strong annual gains - USD continues to benefit from the view the US economy was on course to recover thus allowing the Fed to begin exiting from its simulative measures
***Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (SA) South Africa Nov Trade Balance (ZAR): -3.0Be v -6.7B prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Copper Production: No est v 496.2K tons - 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Industrial production Y/Y: -2.0%e v -6.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 0.8%e v -1.7% prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Unemployment rate: 9.3%e v 9.7% prior - 7:30 (BZ) Brazil Nov Primary Budge Balance (BRL): 12.6Be v 13.8B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: No est v -1.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP: 43.9%e v 44.8% prior - 8:00 (PD) Polish Q3 Current Account (PLN): -665Me v -845M prior - 9:45 (US) Dec Chicago PMI: 55.1e v 56.1 prior -10:00 (TU) Turkish Nov Trade Balance (TRY): -3.5Be v -2.6B prior - 10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: Crude: -2Me; Gasoline: +1Me; Distillate: -2Me; Capacity Utilization:80.2%e - 11:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Unemployment Rate: 11.9%e v 12.4% prior - 13:00 (US) Treasury's $32B 7y note auction - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior - 15:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Budget Balance YTD (MXN): No est v -179.6B
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.