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Wednesday December 30, 2009 - 11:15:18 GMT
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European market Update: USD continues to benefit from the view that the US economy on course to maintain recovery mode

Wednesday, December 30, 2009 5:57:16 AM

 European market Update: USD continues to benefit from the view that the US economy on course to maintain recovery mode

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (FI) Finland Nov Prelim Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.1% v -1.8% prior
- (TH) Thailand Nov Total Trade Balance: $1.1B v $1.7B prior, Current Account: 1.3B v $1.5Be
- (TH) Thailand Nov Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 8.9% v 9.5%e; Capacity Utilization: 65.4% v 66.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Q3 Current Account: €698M v €475M prior
- (SP) Spain Q3 House Prices for Total Homes Q/Q: % v -2.5%e; Y/Y: % v -9.3%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Prelim Industrial Output Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.5%e
- (FR) French Q3 Debt to
GDP Q/Q: 76% v 74% prior; Gross Public Debt at €1.45T, up 2.1% q/q
- (SP) Spanish Oct Current Account: -€4.2B v -€4.4B prior
- (SW) Swedish Nov Trade Balance (SEK): 1.8B v 5.8B prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Nov M3 Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.4%e; 3 month avg: 0.6% v 0.8%e
- (IT) Italian Nov PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -3.5%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Leading Indicator: 101.7 v 101.0 prior
- (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Y/Y: -14.0% v -7.7% prior
- (IT) Italian Oct Large Company Employment Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.0% prior
- (SZ) Dec KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.68 v 1.73e
- (UK) UK Nov House prices M/M: +0.9%; Y/Y: -0.3% - land Registry

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: In the final wind-down of 2009, equity markets in Europe followed a mixed session in Asia by rolling over on the open and moving decisively lower past 4:30EST. Trading today in
Germany will be a shortened session with floor trading on Deutsche Borse coming to a halt at 14:00CET. That close will represent the end of trading for both 2009 and the first decade of the 21st Century (DAX Index entered 2009 at 4856, DAX Index entered decade (2000-2009) at 6961). Downside trading in the session has been led by mixed themes with a broad reverse from early trends as basic resource and heavy industrial names surrendered prior gains. Insurance names moved lower, following comments from Munich Re [MUV2.GE] on the possibility of having to raise rates due to upward trends in catastrophe losses. Banks have traded mixed to down, with emphasis on German names following CSU comments on the necessity of any German Bank Bailout fund needing to be paid for from private sources. A FT article regarding a slow recovery in emerging market demand for cement products (as states lower infrastructure spend) has pressures Lafarge [LG.FR], and Holcim [HOLN.SZ]. A notable outperformer has been Petrofac [PFC.UK] that announced new operations in Turkmenistan. As has been the theme throughout the holiday period, volumes across the board continue a extremely low levels.

-Individual equities: Segro [SGRO.UK]: Disposes retail JV to
British Land for £26.9M. || Accident Exchange [ACE.UK]: Reports H1 Pretax profit £4M v £2.4M y/y; Rev £62M v £85M y/y. || Areva [CEI.FR]: Signs letter of intent with Fresno Nuclear Energy on cooperation on 2 EPR reactors in California. || Siemens [SIE.GE]: Reportedly has received a train production contract from Russian city of Sochi. || Basilea [BSLN.SZ]: FDA Issues Ceftobiprole Complete Response Letter; cannot approve the application in its present form. ||

- Speakers:
India Fin Min Mukherjee commented that the country's high budget deficit at 6.8% to GDP for FY10 cannot be sustained for a prolong period of time. India needs to balance its fiscal deficit and economic growth ***China State Council pledged to implement measures to attract foreign direct as it adjust where foreign companies could invest. It sought FDI in high technology, advanced manufacturing, services and renewable energy and would encourage foreign investors to participate in M&A*** Conference Board Senior Economist commented that the third consecutive slowdown in the rising trend of the Leading Economic Indicators for the Euro Area reinforces concerns about a fragile recovery. The weakening in the confidence indicators behind this slowing suggests that the current recovery of economic activity in the short term may be too weak to stabilize employment and current economic conditions."


- Currencies: The dollar was poised to post its first monthly gain against the
Euro currency since June as it looked to build upon its recently found momentum that has been aided by rising US yields. The shifting outlook for US interest rates has pushed the dollar to two-month high against the yen and
GBP pairs. EUR/USD trading in the mid 143 area throughout the morning while GBP/USD tested 1.5860.
- USD/JPY was holding above the 92 handle as various credit agencies weighed in on
Japan's sovereign rating outlook during the Asian session.
- Overall the market conditions would likely keep participant on the sidelines due to the year-end conditions, but that does not exclude choppy, sporadic price action.
-Looking ahead the 2010 appears to be unfolding a theme of concerns over the public finances following the plethora of stimulus measures provided by governments through 2009 and the increasing high risk of such lofty levels of spending becoming unsustainable.


- Fixed Income:
Italy rounded out Euro-zone issuance for 2009 with the solid if unspectacular sale of €8B in 3 and 10y BTP's - after which annual sovereign issuance in the Euro-zone ended just shy of €1T. The inflation hawks who were ultimately proved wrong in 2009 were dealt a final blow with the last M3 reading for the year undershooting expectations. At -0.2% it was the first time M3 has gone negative and in fact the weakest on record. There was no reaction whatsoever but the market will be watching the space closely into the New Year with the ECB widely expected to slowly inch towards the exit doors. Things are getting ultra slow and volumes are thin, but for UST traders there is still $32B in new 7s to contend with later this afternoon and initial jobless claims numbers tomorrow to keep people awake.

- Energy: South Korea's National Pension Service might invest several trillion won in foreign uranium and oil reserves according to the South Korean Press

- In the papers: London Independent article noted that Over the first 3 months of 2010, UK petrol prices may rise by 5p/liter adding that petrol prices could possibly rise twice as much by the end of 2010. According to RMI Independent Petrol Retailers, it is possible that prices could rise by 10p/liter in 12 months due to taxes and duty increase. The forecast by RMI does not take into account any increases in oil prices. *** : Key themes in global broad sheets have included speculation that GMAC is in line for a further
US gov injection to the tune of $3.5B, bringing its aid to approx $16B in the WSJ. The Journal also took a look at the role Regional Airlines play in large carrier's flight network and the new pressures parents are seen applying to lower costs. The FT has highlighted the decision by PWC to move ahead with a disbursement of billions of dollars in assets from Lehman that has been frozen since Sept 2008. The NYT has looked at the prospects of the 2013 expiration of the €50B EU farming subsidy program that came into force in 2005. Global attention has been given to yesterday's comments from Russian PM Putin regarding plans to curb speculative capital inflows.

-Geo-Political: -Geo/political: Failed suicide bomber AbdulMutallab continues to be more closely linked to al Qaeda with confirmation from the Obama administration of statements from German and UK officials. AbdulMutallab's training and
Yemen connection will pose vexing issue for US strategy regarding Guantanamo Bay and use of force in prosecution of the GWOT. *** In Afghanistan, coming off one broadly fraudulent election this past summer, the central government has announced plans for a parliamentary election amidst a US troop surge in Spring 2010. *** Iran has continued its diplomatic threats, vowing to 'slap in the face' the UK for its perceived role in recent demonstrations while the US is reported to be considering a new wave of targeted sanctions***Iran is close to an agreement to secretly imports over 1,300 tons of purified uranium ore from Kazakhstan. *** In European issues, the US has rejected concerns aired by Russian PM Putin regarding specifics and details of a missile defense system. ***Poland expressed some concerns regarding energy transportation via Belarus from Russian sources. ***In East Asia, a Chinese Rear Admiral proposed the construction of overseas naval support bases to provide forward operating logistics to deployed fleets. Bases would be targeted in South West and East Africa to support on-going anti-pirate operations in the region.

***Notes:
- Asian and European stocks on a down note but hold on to strong annual gains
- USD continues to benefit from the view the US economy was on course to recover thus allowing the Fed to begin exiting from its simulative measures

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (SA) South Africa Nov Trade Balance (ZAR): -3.0Be v -6.7B prior
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Copper Production: No est v 496.2K tons
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Industrial production Y/Y: -2.0%e v -6.6% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 0.8%e v -1.7% prior
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Nov Unemployment rate: 9.3%e v 9.7% prior
- 7:30 (BZ) Brazil Nov Primary Budge Balance (BRL): 12.6Be v 13.8B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: No est v -1.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP: 43.9%e v 44.8% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Q3 Current Account (PLN): -665Me v -845M prior
- 9:45 (US) Dec Chicago PMI: 55.1e v 56.1 prior
-10:00 (TU) Turkish Nov Trade Balance (TRY): -3.5Be v -2.6B prior
- 10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: Crude: -2Me; Gasoline: +1Me; Distillate: -2Me; Capacity Utilization:80.2%e
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Unemployment Rate: 11.9%e v 12.4% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $32B 7y note auction
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Nov Budget Balance YTD (MXN): No est v -179.6B

 

 

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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