Wednesday December 30, 2009 - 12:20:07 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 30-Dec-2009 - 1217 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0375/78...Ranged narrowly
R: 1.0395 / 1.0450-70 / 1.0510
S: 1.0335 / 1.0290 / 1.0220-00
Swiss continued to trade below the Resistance at 1.0395, but in a very narrow range of 1.0360-90 during the day. As no significant movement on either side was not seen during the day, our view remains the same on the pair. A break above the Resistance at 1.0395 might increase the chances of a further rise towards 1.0450. On the downside Support is seen at 1.0290 a break below which might see 1.0220-00 on the downside. As the market is nearing the year end, we expect it to remain silent and expect Swiss to trade in between 1.0290-1.0450.
GBP-USD @ 1.5867/70...Might dip further
R: 1.5910-30 / 1.6010 / 1.6058
S: 1.5750 / 1.5633 / 1.5540
Cable has broken below the Support at 1.5881 metioned earlier and is keeping up the bearish sentiment intact. We may expect a further dip towards 1.5750-30 in the coming sessions if it continues to trade lower. The 55-Week MA (currently at 1.5633) is the next significant Support level seen on the downside which might be tested in the coming days. Any sharp upmove is not looking likely as the pair is very strong in its current downmove and we expect the Support-turned-Resistance at the 200-DMA (1.6058) to hold if any sharp rise breaking above the immediate Resistance at 1.5930 is seen.
AUD-USD @ 0.8937/40...Might rise towards 0.9030
R: 0.8980 / 0.9030 / 0.9110
S: 0.8895 / 0.8949 / 0.8820-00
The Support at the 100-DMA (0.8895) mentioned earlier held very well during the day and Aussie has risen from the day's low of 0.8902. If it continues to trade above 0.8900, we might see a rise towards 0.9000-30 in the coming sessions. NOte that the projected Max-High for the day is 0.9031. Any sharp move on the downside is not looking likely as the pair is not showing much strength on its downmove. We may expect the Support at the 100-DMA (0.8895) to hold in the US session today. However, a break below 0.8895 might pull it down towards 0.8950. Remember 0.8849 (61.8% Fibonacci Fan line Support) is Significant Support level seen below the 100-DMA.
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