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Thursday December 31, 2009 - 10:05:14 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 31/12/2009
Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 31, 2009
The Euro fluctuated, breaking 1.4308 first, then breaking 1.4380 and
flying above 1.44. And as we can see, the price is currently trading
inside a falling channel on the hourly chart, with the top of the
channel at 1.4449. Thus, we will consider this level as resistance of
the day. If broken, we will see 1.45 since the targets for such a break
are 1.4502 first, and then the first Fibonacci retracement level for
medium-term (38.2%) at 1.4596. To keep a positive outlook for the
short-term, it is preferred that we donâ€™t break the support 1.4391,
holding above it would improve the chances for more upside movement.
But if it is broken, we expect the price to drop to 1.4330 first, and
then test the support area that was obvious during the second half of
this month 1.4264.
â€¢ 1.4391: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 1.4330: important intraday support from Tuesday.
â€¢ 1.4264: Dec 21st low.
â€¢ 1.4449: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4502: Oct 2nd low.
â€¢ 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term.
The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance area that caught our attention
92.31-92.52. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trend
line from yesterdayâ€™s high, currently at 92.50. And if this area is
broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a
possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot
be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the
break of 92.31-92.52, a drop towards 91.30 where the rising trend line
from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will
drop towards the important 90.30, the most important support for the
â€¢ 91.85: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 91.30: the rising trend line from 84.81.
â€¢ 90.38: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24.
â€¢ 92.50: the falling trend line from yesterdayâ€™s high.
â€¢ 93.08: Jul 22nd low.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h low.
Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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