The U.S. Dollar is down sharply overnight against most major
currencies on end-of-the-year position squaring.Although the Dollar is about to close lower
for the year versus most currencies, this month it has shown signs of bottoming
because of the improving economy and the possibility of an interest rate hike
by the Fed earlier than previously estimated.
The Dollar could trade under pressure until the important
U.S. Employment Report on January 8th.This report is likely to set the tone for the Dollar for several
months.Last monthâ€™s report showed a
surprising drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10.0%.Traders will be watching the next report to
see if this was an aberration or the start of a trend.The direction of the Dollar for several
months will be decided by this report. A better than expected number should put
the pressure on the Fed to begin raising interest rates before the start of the
third quarter.A bearish report will
mean the Fed will wait until after June.
Technically, the daily chart is indicating the Dollar Index
is ripe for a near-term correction.A
trade through 77.33 will turn the main trend to down and set up a correction to
76.31 to 75.80. Todayâ€™s initial claims report will move the market today.
Guesses are for the report to show 455,000 jobs were lost. A better number
should help to limit losses.
The daily chart pattern in the EUR USD suggests the minor
trend will turn up on a trade through 1.4457. The first upside objective over
the short-term is 1.4680 to 1.4790.
The GBP USD is following through to the upside after
yesterdayâ€™s spectacular turnaround.The
daily chart indicates that this market has room to the upside with 1.6355 to
1.6478 the next objective.
The USD JPY is trading slightly lower overnight.Stronger equity markets and an improving
economy have put the Dollar in a position to close higher versus the Yen this
year.Minor support is being formed at
91.90.A break through this level could
trigger an acceleration to the downside to 90.50.
The USD CHF is under pressure overnight. The daily chart
indicates the minor trend will turn down following a break through 1.0278.The first downside objective is a retracement
zone at 1.0212 to 1.0143.
After a 50% correction of its recent break, the USD CAD is
once feeling selling pressure.The main
trend turned lower earlier in the week. Look for more weakness to develop
following a break under the .618 retracement level at 1.0459.
Stronger equity markets are helping to boost the AUD
USD.The overnight action has put this
market on the bull side of a minor 50% price at .8964.The next upside target is .9018.A breakout over this price is possible if
upside momentum continues.
Yesterday, the NZD USD showed signs of strength by closing
above a minor retracement zone at .7144 - .7185.These two prices are now support.The penetration of a downtrending Gann angle
at .7215 helped contribute to the strength.The strong overnight action suggests that this market is in a position
to challenge the recent main top at .7318.The main trend on the daily chart will turn up on a move through this
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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