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Thursday December 31, 2009 - 13:30:56 GMT
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Initial Claims Report to Set Tone in Equity Markets

Today’s weekly U.S. Initial Claims Report is expected to set the tone in the equity markets today.  The stock indices are expected to open higher, but gains could be thwarted by an initial claims report showing an increase in job loss claims greater than the estimated 455,000.

 

Treasury futures are trading lower.  The two-day short-covering rally appears to be coming to an end following overnight profit-taking.  There is a little life left in the March Treasury Bonds, however, until support at 115’08 is broken.

 

The weaker Dollar is helping to boost February Gold.  The key retracement area which needs to be taken out is $1107.40. Once support is re-established at this price, then look for this market to attempt to change trend on a rally through the last main top at $1114.50.  $1151.00 is the potential short-term upside objective.

 

Despite the weaker Dollar, March Crude Oil is trading lower.  The next upside objective is 81.52.  The chart pattern suggests overbought conditions may be limiting gains. The charts also show that this market is vulnerable to a correction back to 77.10.

 

The U.S. Dollar is down sharply overnight against most major currencies on end-of-the-year position squaring.  Although the Dollar is about to close lower for the year versus most currencies, this month it has shown signs of bottoming because of the improving economy and the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Fed earlier than previously estimated.

 

The Dollar could trade under pressure until the important U.S. Employment Report on January 8th.  This report is likely to set the tone for the Dollar for several months.  Last month’s report showed a surprising drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10.0%.  Traders will be watching the next report to see if this was an aberration or the start of a trend.  The direction of the Dollar for several months will be decided by this report. A better than expected number should put the pressure on the Fed to begin raising interest rates before the start of the third quarter.  A bearish report will mean the Fed will wait until after June.

 

Technically, the daily chart is indicating the Dollar Index is ripe for a near-term correction.  A trade through 77.33 will turn the main trend to down and set up a correction to 76.31 to 75.80. Today’s initial claims report will move the market today. Guesses are for the report to show 455,000 jobs were lost. A better number should help to limit losses.

 

The daily chart pattern in the March Euro suggests the minor trend will turn up on a trade through 1.4457. The first upside objective over the short-term is 1.4680 to 1.4790.

 

The March British Pound is following through to the upside after yesterday’s spectacular turnaround.  The daily chart indicates that this market has room to the upside with 1.6355 to 1.6478 the next objective.

 

The March Japanese Yen is trading slightly better overnight.  Stronger equity markets and an improving economy have put the Dollar in a position to close higher versus the Yen this year.  Minor resistance is being formed at 1.0884.  A break through this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside to 1.1024.

 

The March Swiss Franc is rallying overnight. The daily chart indicates the minor trend will turn up following a break through .9734.  The first upside objective is a retracement zone at .9806 to .9873.

 

After a 50% correction of its recent rally, the March Canadian Dollar is once again looking bullish.  The main trend turned up earlier in the week. Look for more strength to develop following a rally over the .618 retracement level at .9574. 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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