Initial Claims Report to Set Tone in Equity Markets
Todayâ€™s weekly U.S. Initial Claims Report is expected to set
the tone in the equity markets today.The stock indices are expected to open higher, but gains could be
thwarted by an initial claims report showing an increase in job loss claims
greater than the estimated 455,000.
Treasury futures are trading lower.The two-day short-covering rally appears to
be coming to an end following overnight profit-taking.There is a little life left in the March Treasury
Bonds, however, until support at 115â€™08 is broken.
The weaker Dollar is helping to boost February Gold.The key retracement area which needs to be taken
out is $1107.40. Once support is re-established at this price, then look for
this market to attempt to change trend on a rally through the last main top at
$1114.50.$1151.00 is the potential
short-term upside objective.
Despite the weaker Dollar, March Crude Oil is trading
lower.The next upside objective is
81.52.The chart pattern suggests overbought
conditions may be limiting gains. The charts also show that this market is
vulnerable to a correction back to 77.10.
The U.S. Dollar is down sharply overnight against most major
currencies on end-of-the-year position squaring.Although the Dollar is about to close lower
for the year versus most currencies, this month it has shown signs of bottoming
because of the improving economy and the possibility of an interest rate hike
by the Fed earlier than previously estimated.
The Dollar could trade under pressure until the important
U.S. Employment Report on January 8th.This report is likely to set the tone for the Dollar for several
months.Last monthâ€™s report showed a surprising
drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10.0%.Traders will be watching the next report to
see if this was an aberration or the start of a trend.The direction of the Dollar for several
months will be decided by this report. A better than expected number should put
the pressure on the Fed to begin raising interest rates before the start of the
third quarter.A bearish report will
mean the Fed will wait until after June.
Technically, the daily chart is indicating the Dollar Index
is ripe for a near-term correction.A
trade through 77.33 will turn the main trend to down and set up a correction to
76.31 to 75.80. Todayâ€™s initial claims report will move the market today.
Guesses are for the report to show 455,000 jobs were lost. A better number
should help to limit losses.
The daily chart pattern in the March Euro suggests the minor
trend will turn up on a trade through 1.4457. The first upside objective over
the short-term is 1.4680 to 1.4790.
The March British Pound is following through to the upside
after yesterdayâ€™s spectacular turnaround.The daily chart indicates that this market has room to the upside with
1.6355 to 1.6478 the next objective.
The March Japanese Yen is trading slightly better
overnight.Stronger equity markets and
an improving economy have put the Dollar in a position to close higher versus
the Yen this year.Minor resistance is
being formed at 1.0884.A break through
this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside to 1.1024.
The March Swiss Franc is rallying overnight. The daily chart
indicates the minor trend will turn up following a break through .9734.The first upside objective is a retracement
zone at .9806 to .9873.
After a 50% correction of its recent rally, the March
Canadian Dollar is once again looking bullish.The main trend turned up earlier in the week. Look for more strength to
develop following a rally over the .618 retracement level at .9574.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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