equity markets finished lower for the week after buyers failed to surface
following todayâ€™s better than expected U.S. Initial Claims Report.
End-of-the-year profit-taking was most likely the catalyst behind the drop in
The March E-mini S&P 500 formed a new main top on the
daily chart at 1128.50.Based on the
short-term range, the first downside objective is 1108.50 to 1103.75.There could be a technical bounce at this
level but a break through it is likely to trigger an acceleration to the
downside.The main trend will remain up
until the main bottom at 1088.50 is penetrated.
March Treasury Bonds penetrated the last swing bottom at
114â€™26 but closed off the low.Traders
sold off the T-Bonds following the release of the better than expected U.S.
Initial Claims Report.Traders felt that
the friendly report indicated the Fed will be getting closer to raising
interest rates. This marketâ€™s ability to regain the old bottom at 114â€™26
indicates that there may be one more surge to the upside.This will only take place if the last main
top at 115â€™29 is penetrated.
February Gold weakened a bit into the close as the Dollar
strengthened but still managed to close higher.The chart formation indicates the main trend will turn up on the daily
chart, following a break out over $1114.50.This move could trigger an acceleration to $1151.30 to $1169.30 over the
short-run.The key to triggering this
upside breakout will be the emergence of new buyers between $1094.80 to
March Crude Oil closed higher in limited action.Signs that the economy may be picking up,
continues to underpin the market. $81.52 is the next upside target.The first sign of weakness will be a closing
price reversal top.If this pattern occurs,
then look for the start of a break back to 77.12 to 76.27.
The U.S. Dollar finished nearly unchanged in a volatile
trade, highlighted by a choppy two-side market.Late last night, the Dollar was down sharply against most major
currencies on end-of-the-year position squaring.Throughout the night, however, a support base
was built as traders awaited this morningâ€™s U.S. Initial Claims Report.The Dollar surged to the upside following the
release of the better than expected claims report.Traders reacted positively to the good news
as it indicated the economy was still on track for a recovery, and the Fed
would have to consider hiking interest rates sooner rather than later.
Next week the Dollar faces potentially volatile conditions
as the bigger players return to work after an almost two week absence. Trading
could get wicked as traders position themselves ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls Report on January 8th.
This report is likely to set the tone for the Dollar for
several months.Last monthâ€™s report
showed a surprising drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10.0%.Traders will be watching the next report to
see if the last report was an aberration or the start of a trend.The direction of the Dollar for several
months will be decided by this report. A better than expected number should put
the pressure on the Fed to begin raising interest rates before the start of the
third quarter.A bearish report will
mean the Fed will wait until after June.
Technically, the daily chart is indicating the Dollar Index
is ripe for a near-term correction.A
trade through 77.33 will turn the main trend to down and set up a correction to
76.31 to 75.80. Thursdayâ€™s sell-off stopped just short of testing the bottom at
This morning, the daily chart pattern in the March Euro
suggested the minor trend was ready to turn up on a trade through 1.4457, but
sellers stepped in after the friendly U.S. initial claims report to
pressure the Euro. No actual damage was done to the chart formation so the first
upside objective over the short-term remains 1.4677 to 1.4786. Whether traders
go after this level will be determined by a slew of U.S. economic reports next week
especially the employment report on January 8th.
The March British Pound followed through to the upside after
Wednesdayâ€™s spectacular turnaround.The
daily chart indicates that this market has room to the upside with 1.6351 to
1.6475 the next objective. The tone was firm today although the Pound closed
slightly off its high.
The March Japanese Yen tumbled after a steady to higher
opening and accelerated to the downside following the release of the better
than expected initial claims report. This report signaled an improving economy
and put the Japanese Yen in a position to weaken further. Minor resistance is
being formed at 1.0886.A break through
this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside to 1.1024. The main
trend on the weekly chart turned down this week when the market crossed the
last main bottom at 1.0847.
The March Swiss Franc traded higher overnight but managed to
take back most of the gain during the New York
session as the friendly U.S.
initial claims report pressured the market throughout the day. The daily chart
indicates the minor trend will turn up following a rally through .9734.The first upside objective is a retracement
zone at .9806 to .9873. Taking out the bottom end of a retracement zone at .9603
will put the Swiss Franc in a weak position.
The March Canadian Dollar had an inside day, but closed lower.
After a 50% correction of its recent rally, the Canadian Dollar saw buying
pressure early but turned around after the .618 retracement level at .9574 was
tested. Short-term support is at .9476 to .9435.Investors seem content with letting this
market remain rangebound albeit under volatile conditions.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar: Wed 26 Apr
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 27 Apr
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 28 Apr
08:30 GB- GDP
08:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of M Survey
Items likely to drive FX rates:
The current major focus of trade is the ECB meeting on Thursday. No rate changes are expected. The main focus will be on the ECB policy statement and on any hints of a future move in the direction of a policy nomalization. A normalization is inevitable, but this is all about timing. Always confirm any fundamental view with the techbicals, which often turn first.
EVENT RISK: Wednesday @ 12:00 GMT CA- Retail Sales. Markets always are sensitive to the strength of consumer demand.
EVENT RISK: Thursday @ 11:45 GMT EZ Central Bank decision. There was a reported leak from The ECB Tuesday saying no change from ECB is expected on Wednesday but they might change the wording of ECB's opening statement in June. Markets took these hints as EURUSD positive.
Uncertainty persists about the implementation of the Trump economic agenda. These doubts have been a weight on the USD, equities and bond yields.
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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