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Monday January 4, 2010 - 03:37:58 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 04-Jan-2010 - 0335 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Asian equity indices have started 2010 with a bang. The Nikkei (10669.41) is trading 1.17% higher and the Hang Seng (21998.05) is trading higher by half a percent. The Sensex had ended 2009 at a 19-month high. The sentiments are strong enough to take the index up to 20000 in the second quarter of 2010. The change in timings (market open time changed from 10 am to 9 am) for BSE and NSE is likely to be effective today. There's some encouraging news out of Asia. China's manufacturing index has grown at a fastest pace in more than five years.

The Dow (10428.05) had closed the year 2009 on a weak note having fallen below 10500 again. First half of January would set the tone for the markets going forward.

COMMODITIES
Crude (79.88) is continuing to trade above 79. The 100-Week MA (80.42) and the Trendline Resistance seen on the daily graph at 80.75 are the significant Resistance levels seen. A strong break above these Resistance levels might take it up towards 85 or even higher over the next few weeks/months. On the downside immediate Support is seen in 79.15-00 region a break below which might see 78.00-75.50 on the downside. To see the Trendline Resistance on the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1098.50) is continuing to trade below 1100. The stronger dollar is keeping the downside pressure on the Commodity's price. As mentioned earlier significant Support is seen in 1175-50 region which might be tested in the coming days if it continues to trade below 1100.


CURRENCIES
First proper trading day of the new year. Most of the "high yielders" are defensively lower against the Dollar and the Yen today. The Euro (1.4285) has dipped to a low near 1.4257, just a whisker above the 200-day MA at 1.4240. Might be worth buying. The Aussie (0.8958) is trading near the 21-day MA at 0.8965 and looks mixed. Dollar-Yen trades a wee lower near 92.88, and has resistance overhead at 93.55, the 200-day MA.

The Pound (1.6115) is likely to trade sideways between 1.5950 and 1.6350 for a few days. Dollar-Swiss (1.0372) is trading at the 21-day MA and might be mixed like the Aussie.

Among the Asians, the SGD (1.4033) had weakened to 1.4128 in December but is trading lower again today. Dollar-Won (1155.10) has moved down quite a bit after having seen highs near 1193 in December. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.61 on Friday but could move lower today given the strength in the Asian currencies. The NDFs are quoting lower near 46.50.

The first few days of trade are usually erratic and uneven. As such, it might be good to be careful.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.25%. The Treasury yields have not changed much. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields are quoting at 1.15% and 3.86% respectively. The 5Y, 10Y and 30Y yields have risen above their Resistances as can be seen at:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00


DATA TODAY
15:00 GMT Dec US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 54.2...Previous 53.6
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usism.shtml

 

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Tue 19 Dec
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13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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