Monday January 4, 2010 - 03:37:58 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Jan-2010 - 0335 GMT
The Asian equity indices have started 2010 with a bang. The Nikkei (10669.41) is trading 1.17% higher and the Hang Seng (21998.05) is trading higher by half a percent. The Sensex had ended 2009 at a 19-month high. The sentiments are strong enough to take the index up to 20000 in the second quarter of 2010. The change in timings (market open time changed from 10 am to 9 am) for BSE and NSE is likely to be effective today. There's some encouraging news out of Asia. China's manufacturing index has grown at a fastest pace in more than five years.
The Dow (10428.05) had closed the year 2009 on a weak note having fallen below 10500 again. First half of January would set the tone for the markets going forward.
Crude (79.88) is continuing to trade above 79. The 100-Week MA (80.42) and the Trendline Resistance seen on the daily graph at 80.75 are the significant Resistance levels seen. A strong break above these Resistance levels might take it up towards 85 or even higher over the next few weeks/months. On the downside immediate Support is seen in 79.15-00 region a break below which might see 78.00-75.50 on the downside. To see the Trendline Resistance on the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1098.50) is continuing to trade below 1100. The stronger dollar is keeping the downside pressure on the Commodity's price. As mentioned earlier significant Support is seen in 1175-50 region which might be tested in the coming days if it continues to trade below 1100.
First proper trading day of the new year. Most of the "high yielders" are defensively lower against the Dollar and the Yen today. The Euro (1.4285) has dipped to a low near 1.4257, just a whisker above the 200-day MA at 1.4240. Might be worth buying. The Aussie (0.8958) is trading near the 21-day MA at 0.8965 and looks mixed. Dollar-Yen trades a wee lower near 92.88, and has resistance overhead at 93.55, the 200-day MA.
The Pound (1.6115) is likely to trade sideways between 1.5950 and 1.6350 for a few days. Dollar-Swiss (1.0372) is trading at the 21-day MA and might be mixed like the Aussie.
Among the Asians, the SGD (1.4033) had weakened to 1.4128 in December but is trading lower again today. Dollar-Won (1155.10) has moved down quite a bit after having seen highs near 1193 in December. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 46.61 on Friday but could move lower today given the strength in the Asian currencies. The NDFs are quoting lower near 46.50.
The first few days of trade are usually erratic and uneven. As such, it might be good to be careful.
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.25%. The Treasury yields have not changed much. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields are quoting at 1.15% and 3.86% respectively. The 5Y, 10Y and 30Y yields have risen above their Resistances as can be seen at: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00
15:00 GMT Dec US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 54.2...Previous 53.6
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."