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Monday January 4, 2010 - 11:02:21 GMT
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European Market Update: PMI Manufacturing data aiding risk appetite as 2010 trading commences

Monday, January 04, 2010 5:55:38 AM

 European Market Update: PMI Manufacturing data aiding risk appetite as 2010 trading commences


- (ID) Indonesia Dec Inflation M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.4%e
- (ID) Indonesia Dec Trade Balance: 1.9% v $1.7Be; Exports: 11.3% v 13.1%e; Imports: -2.4% v 4.0%e
- (FI) Finland Oct Final Trade Balance: €1.4B v €1.4Be
- (SW) Sweden Dec Swedbank PMI: 58.2 v 55.8e
- (PD) Poland Dec Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 52.4 prior
- (IR) Ireland Dec NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 v 48.8 prior
- (TU) Turkey Dec PMI: 50.6 v 51.8 prior
- (TU) Turkey Dec Consumer prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.2%e
- (TU) Turkey Dec Producer prices M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.5%e
- (SP) Spain Dec Manufacturing PMI: 45.2 v 45.3 prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec PMI: 48.5 v 47.7 prior
- (SZ) Swiss SVME Purchase Managers Index: 54.6 v 56.9e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 v 50.6 prior
- (IT) Italy Dec PMI Manufacturing: 50.8 v 50.3e (highest reading since Jan 2008)
- (FR) France Final Dec PMI Manufacturing: 54.7 v 54.4 (highest reading since Nov 2006)
- (GE) Germany Final Dec PMI Manufacturing: 52.7 v 53.1e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Final Dec PMI Manufacturing: 51.6 v 51.6; Confirms highest reading since Mar 2008
- (GR) Greece Dec Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 v 47.3 prior
- (UK) Dec PMI Manufacturing: 54.1 v 52.
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence: -3.5 v -5.5 prior
- (UK) Nov Net Consumer Credit -£0.4B v -£0.5B; Net Lending: £1.5B v £1.0Be
- (UK) Nov Mortgage Approvals: 60.5K v 58.0Ke; highest reading since Mar 2008
- (UK) M4 Nov Final Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.2% prior
- (DE) Denmark Dec PMI Survey: 48.9 v 46.5 prior
- (IT) Italy
CPI (NIC incl tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (IT) Italy CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e

- Equities: European markets have entered 2010 on the positive side despite a mixed close in Asia. Chinese manufacturing data, supported by
UK and EU PMI reads in the European morning formed the base of this equity rotation. Chinese data maintained an upward trend in a wide range of commodities with gold, oil, tin and nickel moving higher. Starting off 2010 where 2009 ended, Cadbury [CBRY.UK] Kraft [KFT] speculation has accelerated ahead of a Jan 19 share date following Kraft's hostile bid. Rolling out of its stake lock up, Novartis [NOVN.SZ] confirmed expectations by grabbing Nestles [NESN.SZ] holding in Alcan [ACL] for $28.1B and bidding for the remaining minority stakes. In energy sector names, Total [FP.FR] has entered an agreement with US based Chesapeake [CHK] for a $2.25B shale development stake. Other sectors on the move include UK banks, with RBS [RBS.UK] and Lloyd's [LLOY.UK] moving higher following speculation of asset purchases and renewed talk of a Northern Rock sale. Auto's have seen good attention following positive comments out Renault [RNO.FR], GM's announcement of a new Indian launch and a timeline for its SAIC jv.

-Individual equities: [NOVN.SZ]/[ACL]: Novartis To acquire majority control of Alcon (bringing stake to 77% for additional $28.1B), and proposes merger for full ownership. || Nestle [NESN.SZ]: Announces CHF10B share buyback program in conjunction with Alcon deal (5% of shares outstanding). || Itau Unibanco/UK Banks [ITUB4.BR]: May bid for stakes in RBS and Lloyd's - Times. || France Telecom [FTE.FR]: Independent committee supports intended purchase of Orascom Telecom Holding SAE. || Allianz [ALV.GE]: CEO: Impact of financial crisis on insurance industry will be felt for years in lower returns and slower growth - Versicherungswirtschaft. || Krones [KRN.GE]: CFO Thaus: Targeting FY10 sales over €2B v €1.9Be -Euro am Sonntag. || Fraport [FRA.GE]: CFO: May post results ahead of FY09 expectations -Euro am Sonntag. ||

- Speakers: Swedish Riksbank released it Dec Minutes and noted that the economic recovery was continuing and inflationary pressure would be low in the coming period. There were differing views among the policy makers. Member Svennson dissented, seeking a 25bps cut to 0% level, Deputy Governors Lars Nyberg and Barbro Wickman-Parak supported the decision to hold the repo rate unchanged at 0.25%, but entered reservations against the repo rate path in the Monetary Policy Update, seeing interest rate increases sooner than indicated by the proposed repo rate path. Gov Ingves commented that there was still a lot of uncertainty about the stability of the recovery. Lastly member Oberg noted that although it was clear that the recession had bottomed out in Sweden there remained uncertainty about the strength of the upturn***UK's Chancellor Darling commented that the challenge was to reduce deficit in a way that did not damage the economic recovery. He noted that the HM Treasury growth forecasts were in line with market consensus adding that the BoE's growth forecasts are slightly higher than Treasury's. Darling noted that he expected unemployment to keep rising in the short term. Lastly he commented that if UK economic growth was stronger it would do more to lower the country's deficit*** Indian Fin Min Advisor Basu commented that India's GDP growth rate of 10% was possible in few year period as higher savings rates might aid the growth outlook. He also noted that he saw no sudden withdrawal of fiscal stimulus nor expectations for monetary tightening at the present time *** Thailand Central Bank stated that it expected currency volatility for Baht due to foreign capital flows. The central bank added that it would curb excessive volatility in FX markets*** India Central Banker Ahluwalia commented that inflation was not fueled by excess liquidity factors but due to supply-side factors. He did note that food prices would likely soften soon. *** Sec Gen of Saudi Chambers Council: commented that banks' conservative approach towards lending to private sector was not justified***

- Currencies: Dealers noted that US yields were likely to set the tone to start the year. The
US 2-year yields climbed to test 1.18% level in Asia, which initially aided the dollar as USD/JPY achieved fresh four-month highs of 93.20. However, USD gave back its earlier gains as commodities responded to multi-year highs in most of the European manufacturing PMI data series that were released throughout the session. The GBP was aided by chatter of a UK fix related flows as factors. Nestle's sale of Alcon prompted some M&A flows in regards to Cadbury once again and demand for Cable.

- Fixed Income: Government bonds have got off to a quiet start in 2010 with volumes still light as the European morning progresses. Bunds, Gilt and UST prices are all a touch softer with yields slightly higher, thanks to better than expected PMI's and risk being put back on the table in the new year. The yield on the benchmark 10y Bund is higher by a basis point at 3.40% - a key level which proved insurmountable in both November and September of 2009, while short dated yields are even higher, producing a flatter curve.

- Energy: -Energy: Following the expatriation of 2009's transit contract for Russian oil products on New Year's Eve, supplies of Russian oil via Belarus and the Druzhba Pipeline system to Western Europe appear online. Reports that supplies for domestic Belarusian consumption had been cut off have been denied by various authorities but no official statement has been released. As a reminder, in Jan 2008,
Russia purportedly continued natural gas supplies via Ukraine, while claiming that Ukraine was symphonizing off supplies for its own consumption following a similar transit issue. (As a note, Belarus has historically been one of the closest allies of Russia, seeking monetary, military and diplomatic aid from the country. Belarus's autocratic President since the 1994 has been Alexander Lukashenko.) ***PBoC's Sheng SongCheng said China must invest its foreign exchange reserves in oil and other strategic resources as part of its drive to diversify away from the dollar

-Geo/Political: Warnings of imminent terrorist attack closed both the
US and UK embassies in the Yemen capital of Sana, both facilities are expected to be closed for at least two days. In the continued security fallout following the failed Delta/Northwest Christmas Day bombing, the UK has announced intentions to fast track the introduction of 'full body scanners' at all airports. The US has released an enhanced screening list that will require all passengers from 14 terror linked states to submit to additional security for all US bound flights. South Pacific located Solomon Islands were subjected to a 7.2 magnitude earthquake which triggered a local tsunami. The wave destroyed approx 500 residences. In China, a CNPC operated diesel pipeline ruptured spilling product into Yellow River. CNPC sources have stated the leak has been contained. The Yellow Rives is China's 2nd largest water way and serves as a major source of water for Northern China.

- Euro-Zone PMI data hitting multi-year highs for the most part but showing signs of cooling activity
- PIMCO lowers its holdings of
U.S. and U.K. debt as the two nations increase borrowing to record levels
- The fiscal health of nation will likely be a dominant theme in 2010. Ex- BoE Davies warned of
UK succumbing to a budgetary crisis, and UK economy mired in the doldrums until end of year
- WSJ: Bernanke rate increases must be an option
- The focus already looking forward to Friday's
US payroll report. US looks to India for jobs as Ohio wooing Tata and Wipro
- China Manufacturing PMI grows fastest in 5 years. Shanghai Composite ends session down 1% over inflation and property bubble concerns.
- Singapore GDP falls for 1st time in three quarters.

***Looking Ahead:
- Looking Ahead
- (CZ) Czech Dec Budget Balance: v -169.4B prior
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Central bank minutes
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.5 prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Trade Balance: $980Me v $615M prior
- 8:30 (SI) Singapore Dec Purchasing Mangers Index: 52.0e v 52.0 prior; Electronic Index: 51.3 v 51.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Manufacturing: 54.0e v 53.6 prior; Prices Paid: 58.8e v 55.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 31.3% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Dec IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.6 prior; NoN-Manufacturing Index: No est v 52.9 prior
- 14:00 (IT) Italy Dec Budget Balance: No est v -€5.2B prior; Budget balance YTD: No est v -€8.4% prior



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