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Monday January 4, 2010 - 11:26:11 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/01/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 4,
Fundamental Analysis: German
The EUR will be affected by the publication of the
German Unemployment Change tomorrow (Jan 5).
The German Unemployment Change
measures the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise trend
indicates weakness in the labor market and has a negative affect on consumer
spending and therefore on the economic growth.
A higher than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected
reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
Analysts predict a
reading of 7.00K, up from the previous 6.00K.
As we have expected, the Euro tested the important 1.4449,
stopping 10 pips below it, and started a drop that broke the support specified
in Thursdayâ€™s report 1.4391, and reached both suggested targets 1.4330 &
1.4264 successfully. Stopping only 8 pips below 1.4264 before bouncing back to
1.43 assures its importance, and we will consider it support of the day, and the
borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4439, or a bounce to the
upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the
first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds,
a test of short term resistance 1.4308 will follow, and breaking it would lead
to a correction of Thursdayâ€™s big fall, ideally targeting 1.4369, and if broken
we will jump to 1.4424-1.4456, a resistance area that is full of short term
â€¢ 1.4264: Dec 21st low.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
â€¢ 1.4103: Aug 10th low.
1.4308: intraday top.
â€¢ 1.4369: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
1.4424-1.4456: a resistance area that is full of important levels for short
The Dollar-Yen broke the
resistance specified in the last report of last year 92.50, and successfully
reached the suggested target 93.08 with astonishing accuracy (Thursdayâ€™s high
was 93.09). Short-term resistance is provided by this level. And if this area is
broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53 and then 94.05.
This uptrend is protected by the rising trend line from 84.81 which is currently
at 91.54 and the SMA100 as well. On the other hand, if the price fails to break
of 93.08, a drop towards short-term support 92.35 will follow. And if broken, we
will target 91.54 where there is the rising trend line from 84.81. And if this
level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.51, the most
important support for the time being.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 91.54: the rising trend line from
â€¢ 90.51: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to
â€¢ 93.08: Thursdayâ€™s high.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar
â€¢ 94.05: Aug 28th low.
trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See
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Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
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