Renewed Demand for Risky Assets Pumps Up U.S. Equities
Renewed demand for higher risk assets helped to drive the
March E-mini S&P 500 through the December high at 1126.50 to 1129.75.A better than expected U.S. Manufacturing
report helped to underpin the U.S.
markets and create upside momentum.Traders seem to be positioning themselves for further upside on
expectations the economy will continue to improve.
A surge in demand for higher yielding assets is also helped drive
crude oil and gold prices higher.A firm
undertone was present throughout the day at the expense of the Dollar.
The strong rally in February Gold turned the main trend to
up on the daily chart on the move through $1114.50.The daily chart indicates this market is
poised to rally another $30 back to a retracement zone at $1151.30 to $1169.30.A break in the Dollar will put upside
pressure on the gold. Upside momentum seems to be building for a big move to
A better than expected surge in Chinese manufacturing helped
to trigger a breakout to the upside in March Crude Oil. Traders are expecting to
see increased demand for energy.In
addition, cold weather in the U.S.
has led to a pick-up in demand for heating oil and natural gas. The last main
top at 81.52 was broken overnight, setting the stage for a test of the October
top at 83.60.
March Treasury Bonds closed lower but inside of a
range.Technical factors indicate
oversold conditions but the fundamentals remain bearish. Concerns about
oversupply have this market in a position to weaken further but sellers were
reluctant to press it.Look for a change
in trend to up on a trade through 115â€™29.
Mondayâ€™s strong rally in global stock indices and break in
the Dollar renewed talk of the resumption of the negative correlation between
global equity markets and the U.S. Dollar. Aggressive traders appeared to be
already placing bets today that the Fed would continue to leave interest rates
low for a prolonged period of time.Todayâ€™s action suggests that investors could be getting comfortable with
taking on more risky assets once again.
The chart pattern in the U.S. Dollar Cash Index suggests
that a new secondary lower top is forming at 78.22 and that the trend is poised
to turn down on a break through the last main swing bottom at 77.33. The next
downside objective is 76.31 to 75.80, which gives the market plenty of room to
The Dollar opened the first trading session of the year
slightly better but a strong surge in U.K.
manufacturing data helped to pressure the Dollar overnight.These two better than expected reports
triggered renewed interest in demand for higher risk assets. Speculation is
that global manufacturing will provide the spark for a worldwide recovery.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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