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Tuesday January 5, 2010 - 09:52:47 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/01/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 5,
Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting
Traders of the USD await the publication of the FOMC Meeting
Minutes tomorrow (Jan 6).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held
about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the
FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for
clues regarding future interest rate shifts.
The support 1.4264 survived yesterday, causing the Euro to
rise. It broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.4308, and
reached both targets 1.4369 & the 1.4424-1.4457 successfully. But with this
rise, we got closer to an important resistance, provided by the rising trend
line from 1.4410, which is illustrated on the attached chart, and is currently
at 1.4485. This line could provide a chance to reverse the short term direction
after yesterdayâ€™s rise. So, 1.4485 will be resistance of the day, and breaking
it would indicate a continuation in the uptrend with the next set of targets at
1.4569 & 1.4678, the first & second main Fibonacci retracement levels
for the medium term (The 38.2% & 50%). But, if 1.4485 could reverse the
direction, the price will drop to the support at 1.4454, and if broken a
correction for the whole up-move from 1.4256 will be initiated, which will
ideally target 1.4369, and may be later 1.4303.
1.4454: support level on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4369: Fibonacci 50% for the
rise from 1.4256.
â€¢ 1.4303: support level on the hourly
â€¢ 1.4485: the rising trend line from 1.4410
on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4569: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139
â€¢ 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to
At the moment of
preparing this report, the Dollar-Yen is approaching 91.60, the rising trend
line from 84.81. This point could be critical not just for the short term but
for the medium term as well, since breaking it would indicate the termination of
the rising trend line from 84.81, which will have a huge effect on the technical
outlook for the medium term. If this line is broken, we will fall to the
important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and
maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the line survives this
test, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at
91.97, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20
(and may be to more than that), targeting the important 92.59, and once its
broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited
â€¢ 91.60: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to
â€¢ 91.97: intraday resistance.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 93.53: Mar 19h
---Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex quotes and
other trading tools.
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