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Wednesday May 26, 2004 - 08:28:18 GMT -

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Daily Stochastics Oversold in Dollar Yen

Daily Forex Technical Report 5-26-2004

Daily Stochastics Oversold in Dollar Yen
New 20-day High in British Pound

On Tuesday, we saw the forecasted expansion in EURUSD volatility and break of the recent consolidation. The former May 21 high, trend line and Ichimoku cloud resistance at 1.2075-80 is immediate support. Bulls need to hold the pair above this level to target the May 5th high and upper Bollinger at 1.2170-80. Longs should remain cautiously bullish, as the pair needs to close above this level to confirm the resumption of the uptrend. The double bottom should remain intact above the moving average confluence at 1.1955. A break below 1.1930-55, the 200-day EMA / May 18, 19 & 24 low / trend line support and 38.2% fibo from 1.2182-1.1770 would mark a failed attempt to break the top of the range, which makes the pair vulnerable for a move towards the 1.1893 May 20 low. USDJPY erased all of Monday's gains, breaking below support at the 20-day SMA and 38.2% retracement of 125.79-103.42. The pair is now flirting with 111.75, the May 21 low. Aggressive bulls will be looking to enter around these levels, while more conservative players will wait for 110.50, the 38.2% fibo of 103.40-114.90. A break below 110.50 would negate the overall bullish trend. Bears will look to sell towards the May 25th high at 113.33, ahead of the 114.85 interim top. Daily stochastics are highly oversold, which continues to favor a bullish bias. The trend in the GBPUSD has reversed with a new 20-day high and break above the former head and shoulders neckline / 50-day SMA / upper Bollinger and May 7 high at 1.8010-55. The next level of resistance is 1.8175-95, the 61.8% retracement of 1.8603-1.7450 / April 6 low and April 14 high. Above that is 1.8295, the 50% retracement of 1.9140-1.7450. The target for the rally is the right shoulder at 1.8500-1.8600. With ADX above 25 and daily stochastics and MACD pointing upwards, bulls will look to buy on dips towards the 50-day SMA support at 1.8020. USDCHF has broken but failed to close below 1.2700, the May 5 & 17 low / 50% retracement of 1.2182 -1.3226 and 100-day SMA. However, bearish momentum remains dominant with the moving average confluence above and 61.8% fibo of 1.3085-1.2700 at 1.2830/40 prompting shorts to add to their positions on rallies towards 1.2800, the May 25 high and 10-day EMA. A move back below 1.2663 would expose 1.2600-1.2585, the April 1 low and 61.8% of 1.2185-1.3225.


Comment from 05/02
On 04/05 EUR/CAD had a low at 5731 (below our 5780/5820 zone) before a rally to the 04/19 high at 6242, 511pts higher. The market had a correction below to the 04/27 low at 5987, 255pts lower. The market then rallied to yesterday's high at 6518. The outlook is now quite neutral since we are back to the upper side of the range. Reversal players who are not already short will probably try some reversal plays at 6540/70 in order to exploit the High BB and a robust Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave and 61.8% Fibo from the Mar bear wave). If a sustained breakout above occurs 6700 will be the next major R. On the downside, bulls will have decent dip buying opportunities at 5930/60 and 5670/5700. The first area is the 200 SMA and 50% Fibo from the Sep - mar bull wave. The second is the Low BB and another robust Fibo confluence (38.2% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 03 bull wave).

On 05/04 EURCAD broke the 6540/70 area and reached the 6700 level on 05/05 (high at 6757). The pair retraced to the 05/10 low at 6409 before it rallied and failed once again slightly above the 6700 level. The outlook is still neutral but with a slight bullish bias. Bears and bulls will try to exploit the current range. 6800/6850 will attract bears thanks to the High BB while 6250/6300 will attract the bulls thanks to the 50SMA and a robust Fibo confluence (76.4% Fibo from the May 02 - Mar 03 & 61.8% Fibo from the Nov - Mar 03). A sustained break above the range will then open the door to the 7250/7300 while a break below would lead to 6080/6150 and the Low BB. Finally bulls will keep in mind the 5680/5730 area, swing low and 76.4% Fibo from the Sep - Mar bull wave.


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