European Market Update: Higher Chinese 3-month bill rate hints at potential tightening; risk aversion aids dollar; 'Wrath of Kan" weakens JPY
Thursday, January 07, 2010
European Market Update: Higher Chinese 3-month bill rate hints at potential tightening; risk aversion aids dollar; 'Wrath of Kan" weakens JPY
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (GE) Germany Nov Retail Sales M/M: -1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.7%e - (TT) Taiwan Dec Total Trade Balance: $1.7B v $2.2Be; Exports Y/Y: 46.9% v 45.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 56.2% v 49.6%e - (CZ) Czech Nov Trade Balance (CZK): 14.5B v 12.5Be - (SZ) Swiss Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5%e - (DE) Denmark Nov Unemployment Rate SA: 4.4% v 4.4%e - (NE) Netherlands Dec CPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e - (NE) Netherlands Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e - (AS) Austria Dec Wholesale Price Index /M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -3.0% prior - (UK) Dec New car Registrations: 38.9% v 57.6% prior; 2009 figures -6.4% y/y and at lowest reading since 1995 - (UK) Dec Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.5%e; 3M/Y: 1.1% v 1.6%e; First annual increase since Mar 2008 - (SA) South Africa Dec SACCI Business Confidence: 83.5 v 84.1 prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Dec Business Climate Indicator: -1.22 v -1.43e; Consumer Confidence: -16 v -16e; Economic Confidence: 91.3 v 90.0e; Industrial Confidence: -16 v -17e ; Services Confidence: -3 v -3e - (EU) Euro-zone Nov Retail Sales M/M: -1.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -1.9%e - (MA) Malaysia Nov Trade Balance (MYR): 8.9B v 11.6Be; Exports Y/Y: -3.3% v 3.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.0%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets continued a heavy tone that rotated out of Asia. Asian market closed lower on fears of tightening out of China as the rate in 3-month bills showed an increase for the first time in over one year. This action sent banking shares lower and tech followed suit on moves in the Korean Won and earnings guidance. In Europe, disappointing data, specifically German and EU retail sales continued to show declines, raising risk aversion and sending consumer names lower (ex-Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] that reported expectation busting SSS figures). European banks continued a negative rotation with the sector being cut to Neutral at KBW. Investors and traders through the session remain cautious ahead of key data and corporate news in the NY morning. The BoE will provide an interest rate decision (the first of the new year) at 7:00EST and US retailers will provide a range of December SSS figures ahead of the NY open. Volume levels in Europe continue on a strong footing, easily outpacing their reduced holiday averages.
-In individual equities: Sainsbury SBRY.UK: Provides Q3 trading update: LFL sales +4.2% (excl fuel and VAT); +3.7% (excl fuel). || JD Sports [JD.UK]: Provides Christmas trading statement: 5-week LFL +6.6%. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK]: Reaches agreement with Teva over Generic Prilosec and Nexium. || EADs [EAD.FR]: Astrium space unit has lost Galileo satellite contract to OHB -Les Echos. || Continental [CON.GE]: Approves terms of share sale; to issue 31M (18% of float) new shares at â‚¬35/share in deal managed by DB, Goldman, and JP Morgan. || Praktiker [PRA.GE]: Reports Q4 Rev -10.3% y/y; FY09 Rev approx â‚¬3.7B v â‚¬3.7Be. ||
- Speakers: Japan Fin Min Kan commented his desire for the s JPY to weaken more, must work with BoJ to bring Yen to more appropriate level, Japanese firms prefer USD/JPY around 95 area ***Fed's Bullard: Reiterates outlook that US consumption is stabilizing; employment markets are improving. US house prices are also stabilizing; prices may not likely fall from current levels *** France Pres Sarkozy commented that it would be considered 'suicidal' to withdraw economic stimulus and resists a return of protectionist measures. He noted that the global monetary disorder has become inacceptable and that the global monetary system should have a multi-currency system. Banks should be using profits to boost capital versus paying bonuses***China Commerce Min stated that the Yuan currency must retain its value and that either an appreciation or deprecation would not benefit the global economy. The minister also noted that he supported that the USD maintain its value *** (FR) France Fin Min Lagarde commented that global currency imbalances have not been addressed and need to be resolved
- Currencies: Some risk aversion crept back into the market sentiment aiding the USD's tone. China's central bank sold three-month bills at a higher interest rate for the first time in 19 weeks after saying its focus for 2010 is controlling the record expansion in lending and curbing price increases. Dealers took the 4bps rise in yield as signal that the PBoC was tightening liquidity. The USD was firmer against the major pairs but continue to hold within its recent ranges established during the late dec period. Newly appointed Japanese Fin Min Kan's first official briefing set the tone for the market and highlighted the deep contrast between the previous minister Fujii. The new Fin Min noted that he must work with the BoJ to bring yen to appropriate levels and many firms are in favor of USD/JPY at around 95.00. The USD/JPY continues to remain below the key 93.30 area and dealer are pondering whether Japanese exporters would be tempted to pull offers following the kan comments
- The CHF was softer in the session following a weaker Swiss inflation picture and some linger concerns that the SNB would not want to see tighter monetary conditions from the CHF
- Fixed Income: It has been generally a good session for bonds, with disappointing data helping Bunds and Gilts stay in positive territory across both yield curves. France sold a combined total of â‚¬8.7B in a range of off the run OAT's , with strong results, particularly for the Oct 2019, which were sold at 3.60% in an auction covered 3.26 times . Treasuries are a touch softer with the weak JPY cited as a potential factor. The 2y note has surrendered some of yesterdays fomc induced gains , pushing the yield back just above 1.00%
-Geo/political: /political: In the UK, PM Gordon Brown has survived another challenge to his leadership of the party following attempts by two former cabinet level ministers to hold a secret ballot on party leadership. Though the ballot was never undertaken, tepid to non-existing support for Brown that took hours to materialize have re-opened serious questions related to the strength and loyalty of the party ahead of a UK general election. New Japanese Fin Min Kan inaugurated his tenor with market moving Yen related comments (covered in FX section). Unrest in the Chechnya/Dagestan region has continued with the death of 5 Russian Interior Ministry Police officers in a suicide attack. A coordinated attack in Iraq failed to kill that states anti-terror Special Forces commander, while killing seven others, including five immediate family members. In Africa, concern regarding the health of Nigeria's Pres Yar'Adua have not be relieved by government reports that he is phone contact with state officials. Yar'Auda has been abroad for hospital treatment for the past 44 days. On a similar note, it has been reported that Guinean coup leader General Konae is successfully recovering from a Dec 2009 assassination attempt
***Notes: - China guides T-Bill yields higher as it seeks to limit loan growth and signaling tightening; risk aversion sentiment simmers as a result - Newly appointed Japanese Fin Min talks down the JPY currency - Fed debates whether economy strong enough to end asset purchases. - BoE interest rate and APF decision today with no changes expected
***Looking Ahead: - US Same Store sales data - 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $1.5Be v $1.1B prior - 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest rate Decision: Expected to hold interest rates at 0.50% and maintains Asset Purchase Target at Â£200B - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 440Ke v 432K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.975Me v 4.981M prior - 10:00 (CA) Canada Dec Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 52.0e v 55.9 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.55e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.9% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly Natural Gas Inventories - 11:00 (US) US Treasury's Note Announcement - 13:00 Fed's Hoenig to discuss US economic outlook
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