markets erased earlier losses triggered by the weaker than expected U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls Report to close higher for the day.Traders reacted to the fact that the U.S. employment situation is still
indicating a weak recovery.The markets
turned around, however, as investors saw the break as a buying opportunity. As
the Dollar fell, traders bought up stocks as demand for higher risk assets
picked up.Traders now feel that a hike
in interest rates by the Fed is a long way off and the best investment
opportunities are in the equity markets.
Treasury futures rallied following the release of the bearish
jobs data report but the markets could not hold on to their gains. Traders bought
March Treasury Bonds and Notes on the thought the Fed will continue to refrain
from hiking rates for several more months. Late in the session, March Treasury
Bonds weakened as traders realized the government may have to spend more money
to create jobs. If this market is going to accelerate to the upside, then
traders will have to get aggressive following a breakout over 116â€™05.
February Gold traded higher because of the weaker Dollar.
Traders should watch for an acceleration to the upside following a trade through
$1141.00.This move is likely to trigger
a continuation of the rally with $1151.30 the first major upside objective.
The weaker than expected jobs data report helped to limit
upside movement in the March Crude Oil. Traders also feel that a slowing economy
will led to less demand for crude oil.Technically, this market remains vulnerable to a retracement to 78.80.
The U.S. Dollar finished sharply lower on Friday following
the release of a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report which showed the economy lost 85,000
jobs in December.This bearish number
surprised traders who were looking for evidence that the U.S. economy stopped losing jobs in
Economists were looking for December Non-Farm Payrolls to
rise by 10,000.Most came to this
conclusion because of weekly initial claims and other employment index reports.
However, the ADP jobs data report which was released earlier in the week showed
that 84,000 were lost in the private sector.Todayâ€™s report which included both the private and government sectors
lost 85,000 jobs.This leads one to
speculate that either the government has to start hiring, or it has to begin
spending more money to create jobs in the private sector.
The March Euro rallied following the U.S. jobs data
report.This bullish move erased an
earlier loss triggered by an overnight report which showed that the Euro Zone
unemployment rate reached 10% in November. Regaining of the retracement zone at
1.4350 to 1.4319 is a sign of strength.Upside momentum could be building which sends the Euro back to 1.4680 -
1.4799 over the near-term.
The March British Pound surged to the upside but was only
able to settle inside a retracement zone at 1.5988 to 1.6036. Uncertainty over
the upcoming general election most likely limited todayâ€™s upside action.
Traders remain concerned about the budget deficit and other fiscal issues.
The bearish U.S.
jobs picture helped strengthen the March Japanese Yen.In addition, the Japanese Finance Minister
retracted statements he made yesterday regarding his desire for a weaker Yen.
Technically, the Japanese Yen tried to regain a key 50% number at 1.0825.Rallying back over 1.0818 will be the first
sign of real buying power. The weekly closing price reversal bottom indicates
the start of a possible rally to 1.1223 - 1.1351.
Based on the short-term range of 1.0090 to .9527, traders
should look for the March Swiss Franc to strengthen into .9806.Regaining this level is likely to trigger a
further rally to .9873.
The March Canadian Dollar resumed its uptrend following the
jobs data report.The current chart
pattern suggests that the next upside target is .9740. Stronger gold and crude
oil prices helped to underpin the market. Upside momentum could slow if the
Bank of Canada starts to talk about the need for a weaker currency.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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