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Monday January 11, 2010 - 03:58:08 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 11-Jan-2010 - 0338 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Equities have shown strength last week despite mixed economic data. The Dow (10618.19) and the Nasdaq (2317.17) rose nearly 2% each even as the markets continue to find a clear direction for the ecnonomy for the 1st half of the year. Friday's NFP numbers out of US was disappointing. For more info, see the "Data Today" section below.

The Asian equities, too, have traded strong through the last week. The Nikkei (10798.32) which has traded strong near the end of last year has risen nearly 19% since Nov-09 lows. The Shanghai (3242.84), however, had fallen 2.5% while the Sensex (17540.29), in its 1st week of early market opening, had ended with moderarte gains last week. Today, the Asian indices are trading strong. The Nikkei is closed today on account of "Coming of Age Day".

COMMODITIES
Crude (83.37) is continuing to trade higher. The news of fire in a Canadian refinery and weak dollar is supporting the price rise. As mentioned earlier, we might see a rise towards 85-87 in the coming days. Support is seen in 82.00-81.85 region. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1153.50) has risen sharply today taking support from the weaker dollar which is keeping up the metal's hedge value. Immediate Resistance is seen at 1160 a break above which might see a rise towards 1185-1200 in the coming days. To see the Resistance on the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


CURRENCIES
The Dollar-Index (DXY) has seen a sharp decline to 77.07 from Thursday's high of 77.90. Strong surge in the Euro (1.4520) in Asia today, building on the upmove in the US session on Friday, following the disappointment from the NFP data. The Yen has also surged, with the USD-JPY down at 92.20, but has important Supports between the current level and 91.70. A further fall towards 90.80 would come into focus if 91.70 breaks. Note that the strong Resistance at 93.50 (200-day MA plus trendline) has held on the USD-JPY. The Aussie (0.9312) has also surged and is likely to test the Nov-09 high near 0.9408.

The beleagured Pound (1.6095) has also seen a fresh breath of life, bouncing from Thursday's low near 1.59, but there is Resistance coming up at 1.6140. Dollar-Swiss (1.0147) has also seen a sharp decline today and might find some Support at 1.0095.

Strong surge in the Asian currencies as well with USD-KRW and USD-SGD trading near 1118 and 1.3885 respectively. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.7550 on Friday and may well fall again today on all-round Dollar weakness.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen sharply for Treasuries between 2Y-5Y whereas moderately for Treasuries beyond 5Y. The Yields have moved higher all through last week. The 2Y and 10Y yields are quoting 7 and 2 bps lower at 0.95% and 3.80% respectively.


DATA TODAY
No major data release today


FRIDAY'S DATA
EU GDP Q3 '09 (Fnl)
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/eugdp.shtml

EU Unemp
...Actual 10.0%...Previous 9.9%

Dec US NFP
...Actual -85K...Previous 4K

Nov CA Labour Force
...Actual -2.6K...Previous 79.1K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usnfp.shtml

 

Forex Trading News

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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