European Market Update: Global rebalancing the theme in the aftermath of US payroll data
Monday, January 11, 2010
European Market Update: Global rebalancing the theme in the aftermath of US payroll data
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FR) Nov Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -5.2%e - (FR) Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.6% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -4.4%e - (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: â‚¬411M v â‚¬430Me - (CZ) Czech Dec CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e - (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment Rate: 9.2% v 9.3%e - (TU) Turkey Nov Current Account (TRY): -1.6b v -1.5Be - (SZ) Swiss Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.6% v 3.6% prior - (DE) Denmark Nov Trade Balance Ex-Shipping(DKK) 6.3Bv 6.2Be; Current Account: 9.3B v 4.8Be - (DE) Denmark Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e - (DE) Denmark Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.9% prior - (NO) Norway Dec CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e - (NO) Norway Dec CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e - (NO) Norway Dec Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: -0.4% v 3.6% prior; Y/Y: 10.0% v 4.8% prior - (GR) Greece Dec Consumer price index Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.0% prior; EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.1% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets kicked off the week on positive settings printing new 15-month market highs. Attraction to equities was driven primarily from Chinese December trade balance data that showed continued builds in imports. Chinese demand for copper, ore and scrap all showed m/m increases. This data rotated into strong gains for European energy, mining and basic resource names.
- Other key corporate news flows included Heineken [HEIA.NV] confirming speculation and launching a â‚¬5.5B share offering for Mexian Femsa. Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ] continues to trade higher on continued market speculation that the name may be in play for an offer from Allianz [ALV.GE]. Further M&A news included a tender offer from French pharma Sanofi [SAN.FR] for US based consumer health care name Chattem [CHTT] in a $1.7B deal. Goldman Sachs commentary on steel, favoring carbon over stainless and positive mention in a number of UK listed property management name also drove trading trends. Traders and analysts are actively awaiting the unfolding events of the week that include the opening of Q4 earnings season with corporate reports from Alcoa [AA] and JPMorgan [JPM]. -In individual equities: FMX/Heineken [FMX]: Confirms speculation: Heineken To purchase Femsa Beer Business, deal valued at approx â‚¬5.3B including debts. || Sanofi/Chattem [SAN.FR] CHTT: Sanofi-aventis Commences Tender Offer for All Outstanding Shares for $93.50/shr, valued at approx $1.7B. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Reports 2009 total vehicle sales at 3.19M units (-2.2% y/y); Have seen 'glimmers' of improvement. || Air France [AF.FR]: Reports Dec Load factor 79.7% v 78.9% y/y. || Woselley [WOS.UK]: Reports disposal of Irish business for Â£23.8M. || Continental [CON.GE]: Merger with holder Schaeffler not expected within the next 12 months - Handelsblatt citing sources. || Daimler [DAI.GE]: CEO Zetsche: Reiterates FY margin target of 10% -Automobilwoche. ||
- Speakers: ECB Nowotny commented that the December ECB staff forecasts remain valid and saw no reason to amend them at this time. He added that global excessive risk taking was a concern but commented such was not the case within the Euro Area. He did note that the US authorities were concerned about excessive risks*** SNB Hildebrand reiterated that it would curb excessive CHF appreciation in pair but noted that the central bank had no specific price. SNB is prepared to act*** ECB's Trichet commented that the Basel bank reforms were critical; stronger banks were needed to support economic recovery ***India Trade Min stated that it forecasted Dec exports at $14.6B compared to $13.3B seen in Nov. The ministry would announce on Tuesday which export sectors would receive additional support ***German chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK) Group stated that Q1 Economic growth could be impacted by bad weather by up to 0.4%***India Farm Min commented that the government was considering allowing duty-free white sugar imports until year end from the current deadline of March 31st. He added that the Indian Gov't did not plan to import sugar directly but to Relax raw sugar refining rules in Uttar Pradesh ***China 2009 vehicles sales was up 46% at 13.6M units and the country overtake the US as world largest vehicle
- Currencies: The dollar's euphoric sentiment that characterized the early part of the month has continued to wane following Friday's softer than expected U.S. payroll data. The global risk appetite also weighing upon the dollar following China's December trade balance and its respective component makeup. The dollar was suffering from the double impact of lower yields in the two-year instruments and the dented economic recovery prospects. The old themes that hampered the greenback throughout the 2009 period seem likely to resurface as renewed questioning of US finances . the EUR/USD approaching the NY morning above the 1.45 level while GBP/USD moving above the 1.61660 area.
- Fixed Income: The European peripherals remained on the back burner. FT article noted that Portugal had been warned it faces the possibility of a credit ratings downgrade unless measures are taken to reduce its budget deficit. The spread between the US 2-year and 10-year bond spread widened to a record 287 bps as the recent US payroll report highlighted the double impact of less change of a FED tightening and the costs of the dented economic recovery prospects
- Geo/political: A currency devaluation in Venezuela, along with the construction of two official Fx rates in an attempt to tackle black-markets and impose a weak-Bolivar policy, has led to negative trading in many Latin American exposed names. The second exchange rate will be used to maintain prices on food, medicines and other essentials in an attempt to placate Chavez's constituent base. A terrorist attack in Angola this past weekend against the Togolese national soccer team has been admitted as a mistake by the antagonist Cabinda rebels. Despite this fact, the attack, which killed 3 and injured more during the 2010 African Cup of Nations has raised serious concerns that neighboring South Africa may face similar security issues during this summer's World Cup. In Pakistan, violence in Karachi and North Waziristan has accelerated with multiple bombings killing 35 over the past three days. Deployment of regular army soldiers to further provinces in the NWF region are under contemplation. China has replaced its head climate negotiator He Yafei. Yafei played a key role in China's obstruction of negotiations in the Copenhagen climate change conference and referred to his US counterpart as 'lacking common sense.' UK PM Brown is expected to kick the election cycle into top gear by announcing his campaign leadership team and further honing Labours strategy. No formal election date has yet to be set. Croatia has elected a new President, Ivo Josipovic of a left-center pro-Europe party with 60.29% of the popular vote. Josipovic's relations with the EU and battle against continued corruption are seen as key challenges.
***Notes: - China officially takes over from Germany as top global goods exporter. China overtakes the US as the largest auto market - FT article that Portugal was warned by Moody's over a possible sovereign downgrade. - Fed's Bullard: Interest rates might remain low for quite some time. Positive US job growth likely in H1 '10. - US 2-year/10-year spread at record levels - US earnings season to kick off this week.
***Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (IR) Ireland Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v 53.6 prior - 8:15 (CA) Canada Dec Housing Starts: 160.0Ke v 158.5K prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -3.3%e v 18.0% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Final Trade Balance: No est v 92.9M prior - 10:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Business Outlook Future Sales; No est v 53.0 prior; Senior Loan Survey: No est v 6.7 prior - 12:45 Fed's Lockhart
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