The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply lower as China
reported a 17.7% increase in exports and a 55.9% increase in imports.The surge in exports was the first rise in 14
months.Pre-report guesses were for only
a 4% increase. Due to the timing of the report, and its extreme bullishness,
the Australian and New Zealand Dollars both had rare gap openings Sunday night.
Dollar bulls are still reeling from the soft U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls report on Friday.Traders had
been looking for the report to show that job losses had remained flat or
perhaps that new jobs had been created during December.Instead the government reported that 85,000
new jobs were lost.
Adding more fuel to the bearishness were comments from St.
Louis Fed President James Bullard who signaled that interest rates werenâ€™t
going to move higher over the near-term.Bullard said, â€śinterest rates may remain low for quite some timeâ€ť.He also added that the Fedâ€™s zero interest
rate policy is â€śon holdâ€ť.He couldnâ€™t
have made his position any clearer. In addition to talking about the future
direction of interest rates, Bullard said the Fed faces a challenge when
adjusting its asset-purchase program because of the possibility of inflation.
With the light economic calendar today, traders will have a
chance to digest Fridayâ€™s Non-Farm Payrolls report and its impact on the
economy.So far the bets have been
placed on a weaker Dollar and renewed interest in higher yielding assets as
evidenced by the surge in equity and commodity prices.Traders should note that the soft employment
report has not changed the outlook for a recovery, but it has pushed back the
Fedâ€™s timetable for increasing interest rates.
Later during the trading session, Atlanta Federal Reserve President
Dennis Lockhart speaks to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.Look for him to reiterate what Bullard
already said last night.His comments
are expected to be dovish.
The cash U.S. Dollar Index is in a downtrend.Expectations are for the weakness to continue
until this index reaches a major 50% price level at 76.31.
The EUR USD is trading higher as investors reduce bets that
the Fed will raise rates after last weekâ€™s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs
report.Technically, the Euro broke
through Gann angle resistance at 1.4524.It also broke out to the upside after forming a support base.The first upside target is 1.4680, followed
The GBP USD broke away from a retracement zone at 1.6036 to
1.5988.A new higher bottom was also
formed at 1.5895.The main trend will
turn up on a trade through 1.6240.The
first upside target is 1.6355, followed by 1.6478.
The USD JPY is trading weaker after confirming last Fridayâ€™s
closing price reversal top on the overnight move through 92.28.At this time a Gann angle at 92.08 is holding
as support.Look for an acceleration to
the downside if this angle is broken.The chart indicates there is room to the downside with 89.30 to 88.24
the next downside target.
The USD CHF broke an uptrending Gann angle at 1.0218 and a
50% price at 1.0212. This move helped to accelerate the break to the .618
retracement level at 1.0143.The next
downside target is a slower moving Gann angle at 1.0068.Losses could be limited because of the threat
of an intervention by the Swiss National Bank.Although this action will be meant to curtail the Swiss Francâ€™s rise
versus the Euro, it should also have a positive effect on the U.S. Dollar.Overnight, Swiss central bank President
Hildebrand said intervention was possible to prevent â€śany excessive
appreciationâ€ť.He also added that the
SNB will â€śmonitor exchange market developments very closely.â€ť
Surges in natural gas, crude oil and gold have put the
Canadian Dollar in a strong position.Overnight the USD CAD exceeded the October 20, 2009 bottom at
1.0265.This sets up a further decline
to the October 15th bottom at 1.0205.Gann angle resistance is at 1.0445.
The surge in Chinaâ€™s
exports helped trigger a gap higher opening in the AUD USD while triggering
talk of a move to parity with the U.S. Dollar.Gann angle support is at .9174 today.Look for higher markets as long as this angle holds as support.
The NZD USD also gapped higher on the good news from China.Some traders feel that the jump in China demand
could support the whole Pacific region.Look for an acceleration to the upside if the New Zealand Dollar can
regain an uptrending Gann angle at .7410.
Forex Trading News
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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