Tuesday January 12, 2010 - 03:35:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Jan-2010 - 0333 GMT
The US stocks ended higher on expectations of higher earnings by Alcoa. China came out with encouraging numbers showing an increase of 18% in December exports. The Dow (10663.99) has risen 0.43% and is steadily inching towards the Resistance near 10700.
The Asian indices are trading lower today. The Nikkei (10786.09) has opened marginally lower after an extended weekend. The Shanghai (3190.78) and the Hang Seng (22228.70) are trading lower by over half a percent each. The Sensex (17526.71) ended flat after trading strong through most part yesterday.
Crude (81.71) fell from yesterday's high of 83.75 on profit taking as the cold weather that supported the price rise is expected to moderate according to the weather forecast release yesterday. Immediate Support is seen at 81.50 a strong break below which might test the next Support in 80.30-00 region.
Gold (1150.70) is continuing to trade strong. The weaker dollar and the data showing increasing demand for metals in China Supported the price rise. As mentioned earlier, a break above the immediate Resistance at 1160 might see 1185-1200 on the upside in the coming days.
Bit of profit-taking in the Euro (1.4492) which dipped to 1.4451 in early Asia today, compared to a high near 1.4555 yesterday. See higher levels ahead while above 1.44. Dollar-Yen (92.10) just above an important Support at 91.90-80. Might rally if the Support holds, else might dip towards 91.20-90.90. Picture is a little mixed. The Euro-Yen Cross (133.50) is mixed trading sideways in a range of 130-135.
The Aussie (0.9270) has also dipped a bit on profit-taking, coming down from 0.9325 yesterday to a low near 0.9235 today. The Pound (1.6088) had risen to a high near 1.6195 yesterday, but is vulnerable to a fall back towards 1.5970 as the market appears to be ranged between 1.59-62. Dollar-Swiss (1.0176) remains relatively weak, having dipped from an early-Asia high near 1.0210. It had earlier bounced from yesterday's low near 1.0130. The overall picture is bearish for a test of 1.0070.
USD-KRW (1125.20) has weakened slightly from yesterday's peak near 1115 (for the Won). USD-SGD is also trading a wee bit higher near 1.3898 as compared to yesterday's low near 1.3865. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.34 yesterday having seen a low near 45.25. Today's profit-taking among most asset classes might see Dollar-Rupee rise a bit towards 45.50-60.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries have dipped yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields are quoting 5 and 4 bps lower at 0.93% and 3.79% respectively.
09:30 GMT UK Trade Balance
...Expected $ -6.9 Bln...Previous $ -7.1 Bln
01:30 GMT US Nov Trade Balance
...Expected $ -34.9 Bln...Previous $ -32.9 Bln
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