European Market Update: UK trade balance improves in Nov (Trade the News)_
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
European Market Update: UK trade balance improves in Nov;
- (IN) Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: 11.7% v 10.0%e; faster rate in over two years - (RU) Russia Dec Reserve Fund: $60.5B v $75.1B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $91.6B v $92.9B prior - (FR) France Dec Business Sentiment: 101 v 99e - (FR) France Nov Central Govt Balance: -â‚¬143.3B v -â‚¬134.8B prior - (TU) Turkey Dec Utilization: 69.7% v 70.7% prior - (SW) Sweden Dec Budget Balance (SEK): -117.5B v 6.7B prior - (SW) Sweden Dec Headline Rate CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.7%e - (SW) Sweden CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.5%e; CPI Level: 301.69 v 301.39e - (DE) Denmark Nov Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v -1.8% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 3.1% v -14.8% prior - (RU) Russia Dec Consumer Price Index Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Core CPI YTD: 8.3% v 8.5%e - (UK) Nov Visible Trade Balance: -Â£6.8B v -Â£7.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -Â£2.9B v -Â£3.0Be; Trade Balance Non-EU: -Â£3.0B v -Â£3.4Be; - (UK) Nov DCLG House Prices Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.1%e; first yoy increase since Jun 2008 - (GE) German VDMA: Nov Machine order Y/Y: -12.0% v -29% prior
***Notes: - Alcoa disappoints on earnings but revenues beat - China official expresses personal views on a bullish dollar scenario . - China guides its one-year bill rates higher in similar fashion seen at its 3-month auction last week - India Nov Industrial production beat consensus estimate - UK trade balance better than expectations
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Alcoa [AA] officially began the Q4 earnings season with a helping of 'reality check' as improvements in end markets and selling prices could not offset energy costs and one-off charges. A strong trading session in Mainland China and better than expected Indian November industrial figures temporarily rallied markets with Europe opening on a positive footing. Retailers supported the positive open with both the UK's Tesco [TSCO.UK] and Germany's Metro [MEO.GE] reporting solid figures. The long expected 'defense document' from Cadbury [CBRY.UK] outlined that groups growth and dividend plan while reiterating its general sense of loath towards hostile bidder Kraft [KFT]. Positive rotation in European equities could not be maintained, however, with chemical, industrial and earnings related names moving lower. Aluminum names, including Norsk Hydro [NHY.NO] followed German listed Alcoa shares lower with weakness across the sector. EADs [EAD.FR] provided its 2009 order intake and deliver figures along with prelim revenue levels. The aircraft manufacturer reiterated the end of Jan, 2010 as the deadline for a final decision regarding the life of the A400M. Trading volume levels remained high throughout the session with all major bourses exceeding their moving averages. In this morning's session, the VDAX volatility index moved below its pre-Lehman levels mirroring the VIX index move last month.
-In individual equities: Tesco [TSCO.UK]: Holiday Trading Statement: Reports UK 6-week SSS +4.9% (VAT adjusted). || EADs [EAD.FR]: Provides 2009 production figures: Sees FY09 Rev â‚¬41.7B v â‚¬42.9Be; 2010 to be challenging year. || Cadbury [CBRY.UK]: Defense Document: Sees 5% base rev growth; Full year dividend growth expected to be 10%. || Debenhams [DEB.UK]: Interim Management Statement: Reports SSS +0.1% in holiday period. || Metro [MEO.GE]: Provides trading update: Reports 2009 Sales â‚¬65.5B v â‚¬69.5Be; EBIT in line with expectations. || Beiersdorf [BEI.GE]: Reports prelim FY09 EBIT â‚¬585M v â‚¬596Me; Sales â‚¬5.8B v â‚¬5.8Be. ||
- Speakers: German Econ Min Bruederle commented that there was no plans for a third stimulus package *** S&P affirmed ratings on China sovereign debt at 'A1' with outlook stable. *** German BGA export group commented that the German economy could grow by almost 3% in 2010 but added it saw 2011 GDP 'clearly' below 2.0% level. It forecasted 2010 Wholesale Sales at â‚¬770B, up 4.0% y/y and saw 2010 inflation up around 1.0%. it forecasted 2010 German export growing between 7.5% to 10% and stated that the ECB could raise interest rates in H2 of this year *** EU issued a report on Greece debt and deficit statistics and cited severe irregularities in Greek notifications and labeled the country's accounting system as 'inappropriate'. The EU saw systemic failures and weaknesses in Greek statistics and a lack of independence on Greek national services***
- Currencies: The USD see-sawed throughout the European morning as it seemed to continue operating on different agendas in different money centers. The dollar was off its best levels registered during Asia following the 'personal' bullish dollar views of the Chinese sovereign wealth manger. Higher Industrial Production data out of India tried to restart the risk appetite theme but was quenched by the continued rising yields being registered in the Chinese Gov't paper market. The dollar was also impacted by cross related flows. Better UK trade data and lingering concerns over the peripheral debt counties in Europe sent the EUR/GBP cross below the 0.90 level. As the NY morning approached the dollar was mixed against the four major with slight gains against the EUR and CHF pairs and softer by 30 pips against the JPY and GBP currencies.
- Fixed Income: European peripherals continue to simmer in the session. The Greek 10-year continued to widened against the 10-year bunds on supply concerns. Greece was also complicated by an EU report that labeled the Greek accounting system 'inappropriate' and cited severe irregularities in the country's notifications. The Bund futures benefited from the unfolding Greek tragedy.
- Energy: Kuwait Oil Min commented that he saw demand picking up and added that he expected no chance in OPEC supply at its scheduled March meeting. The minister also expressed satisfaction at current price of oil
- Geo-Political: Massoud Ali-Mohammad, a TehranUniversity professor of nuclear science has been killed by a remotely detonated bombing attack. The targeting of a high level, regime linked official in the center of Iranian state power has raised immediate concerns over the motivation of the attack. Iranian state media has reported the attack was carried out of by 'US, Zionist Agents.' China has announced the 'successful' testing of new missile defense/interceptor systems. The exercise, in which state media did not confirm a kinetic in-flight kill, comes amidst rising tension between the US and China regarding arms sales to Taiwan. China has vehemently complained over the sale of US manufactured PAC-3 missile defense systems to Tawian. The PAC-3 has the ability to destroy short and medium range missiles in flight. China's top internet research/search website operator Baidu had its service temporally suspended by what appears to be a hacker attack. Baidu refused to provide any comment on the apparent denial of service attack while several western media outlets have speculated the attack originated in Iran. The World Trade Organization has announced its intention to take a closer look into the brewing US-China trade rift regarding the application of tariffs on Chinese manufactured tires. China filed an appeal immediately following the US decision in Sept 2009.
- Sovereign News: S&P affirmed ratings on China sovereign debt at 'A1' with outlook stable. S&P noted that its ratings on China reflected the country's large external asset position, strong economic growth potential, and a modest level of government indebtedness. These strengths outweigh sizable contingent liabilities in the banking system if the economy suffers an extended slowdown. Chinese policymakers' continued reliance on administrative tools, such as direct credit controls, for macroeconomic management is also an important credit weakness.
***Looking Ahead: - 7:30 (US) Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism: No est v 88.3 prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales - 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Intl Merchandise Trade: C$0.5Be v C$0.4B prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov New Housing price index M/M: 0.35e v 0.35 prior - 8:30 (US) Nov Trade Balance: -$34.6Be v -$32.9B prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales - 10:00 (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 46.8 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.7%e v -5.2% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Gross Fixed Investment: -11.1%e v -11.6% prior - 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell -5-year FRN - 13:00 (US) Treasury's 3-yr note auction - 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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