equity markets are called steady to better this morning.The lack of follow-through to the downside
following yesterdayâ€™s sell-off is triggering a short-covering retracement
rally.Earnings, bank fees and taxes are
on the minds of traders today which could lead to limited gains.The March E-mini S&P 500 is likely to
stall following a rally to 1137.75. Yesterdayâ€™s break stopped inside of a
short-term retracement zone at 1129.00 to 1124.50.
March Treasury Bonds are giving back some of Tuesdayâ€™s gains
after testing a 50% price level at 116â€™28.Regaining this level could trigger a further rally to 117â€™14.On the downside, look for a pull-back to
116â€™05.Talk of higher interest rates
from Fed President Plosser and in the U.K. is pressuring fixed income
February Gold is trading slightly better but in a narrow
range. Overnight volatility in the Dollar has traders confused about the
direction of this market.The chart
indicates a more to $1119.10 to $1108.80 is likely over the near-term.A rally today is likely to be
short-covering.Look for new selling
pressure to come in if this market rallies back to $1143.60.
News that China
may be pulling stimulus, and signs that the cold weather on the East Coast may
be moderating, is helping to chase speculators out of March Crude Oil.Based on the range of 73.52 to 84.45, the
charts indicate a break to 78.99 is likely over the near-term.Downside momentum could weaken this market
further to 77.70.
The U.S. Dollar is trading weaker overnight following a
volatile trade.The initial move in the
Dollar was to the upside as Germany
announced that its economy had shrunk more than expected in 2009.German GDP contracted 5% which was its first
decline in 5 years.
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
President Plosser also triggered a rise in the Dollar.He said the Fed should raise interest rates
as the economy improves and not wait for the unemployment rate to decline.Plosser is a voting member on the FOMC so his
comments carry some weight.
The Dollar could not hold earlier strength and is now
trading lower ahead of the New York
session.Increased demand for higher
yielding assets seems to be the developing theme. The key report today is the
Fed Beige Book which is scheduled for a 1 pm Central Time release.
The main trend turned up in the March British Pound
overnight on the trade through 1.6235.The next upside target is 1.6351.Watch for a technical bounce at this level.The British Pound is being boosted by hawkish
comments from Bank of England member Andrew Sentence.He said that the BoE has done enough to
stimulate the economy and that interest rates should be allowed to rise this
The March Euro has recovered after overnight weakness
triggered by Germanyâ€™s
bearish GDP report.Short-covering ahead
of tomorrowâ€™s European Central Bank meeting could be the catalyst behind the
turnaround.The charts indicate the Euro
is still on pace for a near-term test of 1.4677.
The March Canadian Dollar tried to continue the break which
began two days ago and continued on Tuesday, but the selling pressure stalled
after the market regained an uptrending Gann angle at .9643.The actual low tested an old bottom from
December 1 at .9608. Watch for a minor corrective rally to at least .9678.
The March Japanese Yen is trading lower overnight as demand
for lower yielding assets is down. This currency is trading inside of
yesterdayâ€™s range.The short-term
picture indicates the start of a small correction, but the bigger charts
indicate there is plenty of room to the downside with 1.1273 the first
The March Swiss Franc is up and resting near a .618 level at
.9873 after testing a 50% price at .9806.Upside momentum could drive this market higher and into a slow moving downtrending
Gann angle at .9935.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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