The U.S. Dollar finished lower against a basket of
currencies for the fifth straight day in sluggish trading. Contributing to the
weakness were reports that U.S. Jobless Claims rose last week by the largest
amount in five weeks and U.S. Retail Sales were down.
Both reports show that employment is still a major issue
affecting the economy as well as consumer spending.Traders pressed the Dollar most of the day
and wouldnâ€™t allow it to get away by too much on the upside. Todayâ€™s economic
data suggests the Fed will keep interest rates lower for a prolonged period of
time which is once again driving up demand for higher yielding assets.
The European Central Bank left interest rates at 1% as
expected. The EUR USD weakened a bit after ECB President Trichet failed to
spark interest in the upside following his assessment of economic
conditionsin the Euro Zone region. The
trading range was tight most of the day following the report. The chart
indicates 1.4680 is still a possible upside target.
The AUD USD finished the day higher, but failed to move much
to the upside following a strong surge overnight. Fresh buying and
short-covering drove the Aussie higher following the release of a robust
Australian jobs report early in the trading session. The Australian jobless
rate eased in December while the economy added close to three times as many
jobs as initially forecast.
The size of the rise in the number of jobs has increased the
chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates
at its next meeting on February 2nd. Some economists are forecasting a 5.50%
rate by December 2010.Gains may have
been limited by traders who believe a tighter monetary policy in Australia and an end to Chinaâ€™s stimulus
measures will dampen Australian exports.
The bullish action in the Australian Dollar spread to the
NZD USD.The Kiwi traded sharply higher
overnight but remained rangebound most of the New York session.
The weak U.S.
economic data helped turnaround the USD JPY after a higher opening.The failure to reach a 50% level at 92.24 was
the first sign of weakness.The second
sign would have been a trade through the low for the week at 90.72, but this
price held as support.A trade through
this level tomorrow will put the market in a position to weaken further with
89.30 the next downside target.
The USD CHF tried to breakout to the upside through a 50%
price at 1.0212 before failing to attract aggressive buyers.Downside momentum pushed it back inside a
retracement zone with 1.0143 the next potential downside target.Weak U.S. economic data made the Swiss
Franc more attractive. Losses were most likely limited because of the threat of
intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
The USD CAD worked to a new low for the week. Greater demand
for gold, copper and natural gas helped to support the Canadian Dollar. Look
for this currency to remain strong as long as there is demand for raw
materials. Short position traders have to be careful down in this area because
of possible action by the Bank of Canada to weaken the Canadian Dollar. 1.0205
was the low in October at the time the BoC issued a stern warning regarding the
price of the currency.
The GBP USD traded higher after erasing earlier losses. The
strong close has this market in a position to test a 50% price at 1.6355.Upside momentum could take this market to the
next level at 1.6478. The British Pound turned the main trend to up on the
daily chart earlier in the week when it crossed a main top at 1.6240.This move was primarily driven by a Bank of
England memberâ€™s call for higher interest rates later in the year.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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