European market Update: ECB Trichet speaks bluntly on European debt situation; Greek, Irish and Portuguese bond spreads continue to widen
Friday, January 15, 2010
European market Update: ECB Trichet speaks bluntly on European debt situation; Greek, Irish and Portuguese bond spreads continue to widen
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (CH) China Dec New Yuan Loans: CNY379.8B v CNY310.0Be; M2 Money Supply: 27.7% v 28.0%e - (CH) China Dec Foreign Exchange Reserves: $2.399T v $2.420Te 8Be - (GE) Germany Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.5%e - (FI) Finland Nov Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.1% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Dec EU-25 New Car registration: 16.4% v 26.9% prior - (HU) Hungary Nov Final Industrial Output M/M: -1.3% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -9.2% v -9.3% prior - (CZ) Czech Dec PPI Industrial M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.8%e - (CZ) Czech Nov Export Price Index Y/Y: -3.4% v -3.2% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -5.7% v -8.1% prior - (TU) Turkey Oct Unemployment rate: 13.0% v 13.6%e - (FI) Finland Nov Current Account: â‚¬0.3B v â‚¬1.0Be - (SP) Spain Nov House Transactions Y/Y: -2.6% v -21.3% prior - (SZ) Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.5%e - (SP) Spain Q4 House Price Index Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -6.2% v -7.8% prior - (DE) Denmark Dec Wholesale Prices M/M: -0.6% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v -1.9% prior - (SW) Sweden Dec Avg House Prices (SEK): 1.88M v 1.88M prior - (AS) Austria Dec Consumer prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7% prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Current Account (CZK): -1.6B v -2.0Be - (NO) Norway Dec Trade Balance (SEK): 31.1B v 29.1B prior - (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI (Incl tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e - (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Dec CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Trade Balance: â‚¬4.8B v â‚¬7.0Be; Trade Balance Seasonal Adj: â‚¬3.9B v â‚¬5.0Be - (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-20 M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened on a mixed note with the FTSE100 dragged lower by losses in the worlds largest listed hedge fund MAN group [EMG.UK]. In MAN's Q3 trading update, the group announced further redemptions in Q3 that led to a decline in FUM, redemptions came not only from individual clients, but also on the institutional side. Outperformance in the banking sector pushed European equities higher with all markets well into positive territory by 4:00EST. The financial sector has seen strong interest ahead of the first significant Q3 US financial release from JPMorgan [JPM] just before 7:00EST. Into 5:00EST, trading has remained extremely choppy with bourses making significant moves. The DAX, following a test of 6,000 to the downside, rapidly gave back ground and flipped negative. Other bourses followed the rotation but strength in UK financials led to a reverse bounce with the FTSE setting new highs. In trading flows, tech has maintained a positive footing (ex SAP [SAP.GE]) following Intel's [INTC] blow out earnings and retail/grocers have taken heart from Carrefour's [CA.FR] Q4 results that were released after the close of trading yesterday. In Switzerland, results from SGS [SGSN.VX] kicked of blue-chip earnings on the SMI to a positive theme. Volumes in today's trading session have remained high throughout and across all of Europe's major exchanges.
-Individual equities: MAN Group [EMG.UK]: Q3 management statement: FUM at $42.4B -4% y/y. || Fraport [FRA.GE]: Reports Dec Frankfurt passenger volume +2.3% y/y at 3.8M. || Carrefour [CA.FR]: Reports Q4 Rev â‚¬26B v â‚¬26Be, LFL sales -0.9% (LFL ex petrol -1.3%). || SGS [SGSN.SZ]: Reports FY09 Net profit CHF566M v CHF582Me, Rev CHF4.7B v CHF4.8Be. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Trichet commented that there was a major debt problem in Europe and said that Greece had to sort out its own problems by itself. He added that the ECB was doing all it can to ensure economic recovery and increase confidence and warned that democracies cannot be asked again to save economy. Trichet reiterated views from Thursday press conference that the budding economic recovery could be bumpy and uneven. He noted that one must remain cautious in terms growth expectations. He reiterated view of moderate economic growth in 2010 but noted that could encounter periods of faster and slower q/q growth. Overall must remain realistic and not pessimistic on the outlook. Keeping confidence is key and both institutions and citizens must do all to increase confidence. ***BoJ Chief Economist Momma commented that there was little risk of double-dip recession in Japan. He noted that the Government and Central Bank needed to cooperate together to ensure deflationary spiral averted and that the price declines would ease in 1 to 2 years. He noted that Japan's growth might slow due to global fiscal spending cuts and that Japanese companies continued to have excess capacity. It might take 1 to 2 years to overcome Japan's output gap. Japanese consumers are spending less on non-durables while durable goods spending was firm due to fiscal stimulus measures. He expressed optimism that capital spending might pick up later in 2010 *** Turkey Fin Min Simsek commented that an IMF loan program would be beneficial and an insurance policy for country. He commented that Q4 economic growth showed clear signs of recovery and believed that 2010 GDP growth of 3.5% was conservative ***UK Darling: Confident that UK recession ended in Q4 but noted that the recovery would be 'very moderate' *** World Bank Pres Zoellick commented that there remained many questions in the world economy and added that the effects from the rcent crisis would be felt for years to come. ***Germany Gov't spokeperson commented that there was no plans for special charge on banks and added that the priority was to find an international solution
- Currencies: Concerns over a potential debt crisis aided the USD and JPY currencies in the session as risk aversion sentiment continued to simmer. A blunt acknowledgment from ECB's Trichet that Europe had a debt problem sent the EUR/USD below the 1.44 handle before consolidating ahead of the NY morning. Trichet reiterated many of the points made during his press conference yesterday but stressed that countries like Greece need to resolve their own situation. The European pairs were broadly weaker against the dollar and JPY crosses as pressure intensified pressure on countries like Greece to cut their budget deficits.
- Fixed Income: The European peripherals continue to be the focus as the Greek, Irish and Portuguese spreads continued to widen against the 10-year bund. Comments from ECB's Trichet again was quite blunt that those States with debt problems ned to work out their situation on their own. The 10-yr Greek/Bund spread was +180bps to its widest level since Feb 2009, while the Irish/German 10-year spread was at +162bps. Portugal spread was at over +95 bps to its widest level since last April. Fresh supply also adding to the situation.
Energy: IEA released its Jan Monthly Report and maintained its 2010 oil demand at 86.3M bpd (first hold following 6 consecutive increases). Forecasts 2010 global oil supply at 86.2M bpd, up 270K bpd, due to both higher OPEC and non-OPEC output. The IEA saw 2010 oil demand slightly revised down from Dec read but noting that global stock overhand would remain in absence of better economic growth. It forecasted 2010 China demand revised up 100K bpd. The IEA forecasted 2010 non-OPEC supply lower by 150K bpd and 2010 OPEC demand seen at 29.1M bpd. OPEC Dec compliance seen down m/m and OPEC Oct output supply up 75K bps to 29.1M bps. OPEC member compliance fell to 58%
- Geo/political: Ukraine is bracing ahead of presidential elections set for this Sunday, January 17, 2010. Polls indicated that former PM Viktor Yanukovich, who ended up on the losing side of 2005's 'orange revolution,' is sitting in the lead. The 2005 election, in which initial findings were rejected following allegations of massive fraud, brought Viktor Yushchenko to power with a 'pro-EU' approach. Ukraine remains deeply divided between east/west and in its relations to the US and to Russia. Contentious issues regarding energy transfer, debts and the budget have led to suspension of talks with the IMF over a previously negotiated loan pact. The US has stepped up its aid pledge to stricken Haiti promising aid of $100M and a military deployment of 5.5K soldiers to secure and oversee the operation. The deputy commander in US Southern Command, three star General PK Keen is to command the mission. Pakistan security forces have announced that the US has once again failed to kill the leader of the regional Taliban in a drone launched missile attack in NW Pakistan. The attack reportedly killed 15 but missed the intended target, Hakimullah Mahsud. In Afghanistan, the ISAF has begun a planned expansion of the Afghan armed forces from 102.4K to 171.6K by 2011. US forces are leading the training operations that are not only seeking to expand the size of the force, but its overall capability of opposing a growing insurgency. Israeli diplomatic staff were the target of a road side bombing in Jordan. The device successfully detonated but failed to injure any of the mission. - In the papers: The UK Telegraph ran a story that according to the World Economic Forum, one risk for 2010 was that weakness in the finances of governments could push economies into a full-fledged debt crisis. The reported noted that there was more than a one-in-five chance of another asset price bubble implosion costing the world more than Â£1 trillion, and similar odds of a full-scale sovereign fiscal crisis. The article noted that investors must steel themselves for the possibility of a second leg to the financial crisis, and should be equally prepared for a fiscal crisis, in which a major economy faces either default or a "sudden stop" in financing themselves on capital markets. The article noted that report also highlights the risk of a further asset price collapse, which could derail the nascent economic recovery across the world, with particular concern surrounding China, which some fear may follow the footsteps Japan trod in the 1990s.
***Notes: - European peripherals continue to widen - JPM rsults with whisper number said to be $0.75 v $0.60e - Germany downplays rumors of PM Merkel resignation
***Looking Ahead: - 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Exports: No est v $2.9B prior - 7:00 (IS) Israel Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 3.8% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Nov Trade Balance: -â‚¬778Me v -â‚¬819M prior; Current Account: -â‚¬975Me v -â‚¬991M prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: -7.0%e v 3.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; CPI Ex Food&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI NSA: 216.050e v 216.330 prior - 8:30 (US Jan Empire manufacturing: 12.00e v 2.55 prior - 9:00 (PD) Poland Dec Budget Level (PLN): No est v -498.2M prior; YTD: No est v -24.4B prior - 9:15 (US) Dec Industrial Production: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Capacity Utilization: 71.8%e v 71.3% prior - 9:55 (US) University of Michigan Confidence: 74.0e v 72.5 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest rate Decision: No change expected in the Overnight rate from the current 4.50% level - 12:30 (US) Fed Lacker speaks on economy - 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.5% prior
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