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Monday January 18, 2010 - 11:46:58 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/01/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis January 18, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision

Traders are looking forward to the publication tomorrow (January 19), of the Bank of Canada, regarding short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 0.25%.

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Euro Dollar

We will put all our focus for today on 1.4299, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last week’s report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555.

Support:
• 1.4299: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
• 1.4176: Sep 1st low.

Resistance:
• 1.4421: a falling trend line on the intraday charts and hourly chart.
• 1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
• 1.4555: Jan 11th high.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen tried to break 90.76 on Friday, before going back above it after an short-lived attempt, and stayed above it until the weekly close. But on the other hand, the internal structure of the last two moves: the rise from 90.71 & the fall from 92.03 could be read as parts 1 & 2 of a 3-way correction, or in the language of Elliott Wave analysis: waves a & b. In this case, a similar up move to the one from 90.71 will appear before breaking this important bottom. Such a move will ideally target 91.87 & 92.59. And given that short term resistance is at 91.30, a break here would indicate this move is already underway. On the other hand, breaking 90.76 will eliminate this assumption, and indicates a continuation of the drop on the last day of the week, which is expected to hit this pair hard, and drag it to 89.79 and may be 89.22.

Support:
• 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
• 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
• 89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.

Resistance:
• 91.30: the falling trend line from 93.75.
• 91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
• 92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.For information on forex quotes see ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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