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Tuesday January 19, 2010 - 09:58:31 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 19/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 19,
Fundamental Analysis: Core CPI
Traders look forward to the publication of the Canadian Core
Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be released tomorrow (January 20). The CPI
measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and
energy. Also, it measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It
is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada. A
higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD (as
the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign
investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.20% versus a past
reading of 0.40%.
We will put
all our focus for today on 1.4303, where there is the rising trend line from
December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the
direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last
weekâ€™s report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at
Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry
on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important
support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is still at 1.4421, and breaking it
will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 &
â€¢ 1.4303: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd
â€¢ 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
â€¢ 1.4176: Sep 1st
â€¢ 1.4421: yesterdayâ€™s resistance that stopped
â€¢ 1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
â€¢ 1.4555: Jan 11th
Dollar-Yen broke the
support that we put under our surveillance in the last few days 90.76, and
although this break was not followed by a big move, closing below it indicates
momentum in the downtrend. Now, it is important for the price to stay below the
most important resistance 90.90, which is provided by the falling trend line
from 93.75. Staying under this trend line in specific means that the downtrend
is going on. Short term support is 90.37, breaking it would initiate a down move
that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target
89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 90.90, we do
not expect it to be broken today, but if a surprise happens, we will be in an
upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3
main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 &
â€¢ 90.37: intraday support.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
â€¢ 89.22: a
previous well known support/resistance area.
90.90: the falling trend line from 93.75.
â€¢ 91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the
whole move down from 93.75.
â€¢ 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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