equity markets are trading overnight and are expected to open slightly above
near-term support.The March E-mini
S&P 500 broke an uptrending Gann angle at 1132.25 which has held as support
since November 27th.This is a sign of
impending weakness. Short-term support is a retracement zone at 1129.00 to
1124.50.Once this zone is broken, the
next downside targets will be 1105.00 and 1095.00.The fear of higher interest rates is helping
to shift sentiment out of higher risk assets.
The short-term trend is up in the March Treasury Bonds, but
the market appears to be stalling inside of a retracement zone at 116â€™28 to
117â€™14.Last nightâ€™s attempt to breakout
to the upside appears to be failing, setting up this market for a potential
closing price reversal top. For a while,
the strategy used by traders has been sell bonds and buy stocks, but recent
action suggests that this strategy may be shifting.Traders should be aware that it is possible
that the threat of a rise in interest rates could pressure both equities and
fixed income instruments.As the
government begins to pull stimulus measures which have artificially kept
interest rates low, investors are going to have to begin pricing in a true
interest rate.Heavy Treasury debt and
new corporate debt could trigger a spike in interest rates because of
The strength in the Dollar is helping to pressure February
Gold today, although this market has traded sideways for the past four
days.A shift in momentum to the
downside could trigger a break to $1119.10 to $1106.80 over the near-term. News
if higher interest rates in China
and a possible end to stimulus plans could mean less demand for raw
materials.This is also putting pressure
on precious and industrial metals.
March Crude Oil is also under pressure because of the
strengthening Dollar and a potential drop in demand from China.Speculators have taken the weather premium
out of the crude market which means a further decline is possible as the market
is likely to return to the pre-cold weather price area.Currently, March Crude Oil is trying to
establish support inside of a retracement zone at 78.99 to 77.70.Regaining the top end of this zone could
trigger a short-covering rally to 80.95.A failure to hold the lower end of the zone indicates acceleration to
the downside is likely.
A drop in global equity markets is helping to boost the
Dollar as traders shift out of higher yielding assets. The Dollar started out
weaker overnight as traders returned after a U.S. holiday, but it turned higher
on technical factors and surprise economic data from competing nations. Shortly
before the opening, the Dollar is trading higher versus most major markets
except the British Pound. This could shift as overnight downside pressure on
the Pound seems to be building.
The March Euro continues to take a pounding as European
finance ministers prepare to discuss Greeceâ€™s debt problems.Fears of a potential Greece default and additional credit market woes
in Spain, Portugal and perhaps Ireland are weighing on the
Traders expect the European finance ministers to hold their
ground and maintain that Greece
solves its own problems. This could be an indication that this problem will
persist as Greece
is having problems reaching a budget decision.
News that German investor confidence declined more than
expected is helping to draw additional selling pressure.Speculators are beginning to price in the
possibility the Euro Zone economy may be stalling.This report could be proof that the Euro Zone
recovery is falling behind the other major economies.
Technically, the March Euro is finding resistance at
downtrending Gann angle resistance at 1.4404.Overnight, the market failed to hold a retracement zone at 1.4386 to
1.4346, which indicates further weakness is likely.This area is likely to act as a pivot zone
over the near-term.
The March British Pound originally soared to the upside on
the news that Kraft was about to acquire Cadbury PLC. The news of the
acquisition originally drew bids from British Pound traders who helped maintain
its early upside bias.The violation of
key technical resistance levels also helped to send the market higher.This was most likely a follow-through rally
following yesterdayâ€™s improving U.K.
Overnight, the British Pound pierced a 50% resistance level
at 1.6355, but fell short of a test of the .618 level at 1.6478.Additional resistance was provided by
downtrending Gann angle resistance at 1.6438.
Higher than expected consumer inflation helped drive the
British Pound lower after an initial spike following the release of the report.
Todayâ€™s report showed that inflation had accelerated at a record pace.It also was proof that the Bank of England
stimulus plan is working, and that there is no need for further stimulus
measures.The BoE stimulus activity did
its job but stopping the threat of inflation, but has helped put inflation back
on the agenda.
Technically, the overnight action in the British Pound has
put this market in a position to post a daily closing price reversal top. All
that is needed is a lower close, and the March British Pound will be set up for
a substantial break to the downside.Preliminary chart work suggests there is room to correct to 1.6176 over
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