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Wednesday January 20, 2010 - 12:39:24 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 20/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 20,
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless
Traders anticipate the publication tomorrow (21 January) of the
Initial Jobless Claims. It is a measure of the number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is
collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market,
as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move
of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight change from the previous
reading of 444.00k to a future reading of 440.00k.
The Euro broke yesterdayâ€™s support 1.4303, and
successfully reached both suggested targets for this break 1.4216 & 1.4176.
Reaching areas below 1.4216 so fast, indicates how solid this break was, and
confirms its importance. But, now after we have reached here, we should keep
open minds towards every possibility. The most probable one is of course a
continuation of the Dollar rally, and dragging the Euro lower and lower. This
scenario gains more confidence if and when we break 1.4185, and in this case the
next set of targets will be 1.4103 and the important 1.4006. But, if it turns
out that todayâ€™s movement will be opposite to the direction of the break we
witnessed yesterday, the Euro will break the resistance at 1.4216, and in this
case we may see a strong rise targeting Fibonacci retracement levels 1.4322
â€¢ 1.4185: the most important intraday
support for the last few hours.
â€¢ 1.4103: Aug 10th low.
â€¢ 1.4176: the
important bottom of Jul 29th.
â€¢ 1.4216: Dec 22nd
â€¢ 1.4322: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4371: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from
In an unexpected fashion,
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 90.90 and challenged the resistance area near
91.30, in a break that is completely opposite to the technical outlook that
followed the break of 90.76. This break makes the picture unclear, and we will
be awaiting clearer signals by breaking the support o resistance of the day
90.76 & 91.30. Short term support is 90.76, breaking it would initiate a
down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would
target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 91.30,
and if broken, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75,
which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04
â€¢ 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole
rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
â€¢ 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole
rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
â€¢ 89.22: a previous well known
â€¢ 91.30: a well known
support/resistance area which stopped yesterdayâ€™s rise.
â€¢ 91.64: Fibonacci
38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
â€¢ 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
whole move down from 93.75.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.
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